West Embraces Erdogan Despite Rising Tensions With Israel Over F-35 and Nuclear Deals

The upcoming NATO 2026 summit in Ankara highlights the dominance of narrow geopolitical interests over values, as Western countries increasingly engage with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan despite his aggressive stance toward Israel. The United States is considering selling F-35 fighter jets to Turkey, reversing previous sanctions imposed after Ankara's purchase of Russian S-400 air defense systems. However, this move faces strong bipartisan opposition in the U.S. Congress, prompting Washington to prepare a backup plan involving the sale of advanced F110 aircraft engines worth approximately $700 million to support Turkey's indigenous fifth-generation fighter project, "Kaan."

Turkey's military ambitions also include developing a multi-layered air defense system relying heavily on Russian technology, while exploring the acquisition of the American Patriot missile system. Beyond military hardware, Turkey is expanding its nuclear energy capabilities with Canadian cooperation. Canada recently proposed a major deal to supply Turkish nuclear reactors and natural uranium, marking a significant policy shift from its previous restrictions on military exports to Turkey.

European ties with Turkey are also deepening, exemplified by the Turkish drone manufacturer Baykar's joint venture with Italy's Leonardo and the acquisition of Italian aircraft maker Piaggio. In October, Erdogan signed a $10.7 billion deal with UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer to purchase 20 Eurofighter Typhoon jets, the UK's largest defense sale in 25 years. Leonardo plays a key role in this consortium, providing avionics, radar, electronic warfare, armaments, and maintenance.

Underlying these strategic and economic engagements is Turkey's critical role in managing the refugee flow into Europe, with over 1.3 million refugees having entered Europe via Turkey since the Syrian civil war began in 2011. The European Union continues to view Turkey as a vital partner in security, migration, and energy, despite tensions with Israel. EU Foreign Minister Kaja Kallas recently visited Ankara, praising Turkey as a "key partner" and a candidate for EU membership, even as Israel has severed ties with her over anti-Israel remarks. Kallas emphasized Turkey's significant contribution to NATO's eastern defense ahead of the summit.

Israel remains deeply concerned about losing its regional air superiority, particularly if Turkey acquires F-35 jets, and views NATO's choice of Ankara for the summit as problematic. The complex web of Western economic and strategic interests in Turkey contrasts sharply with the deteriorating Israeli-Turkish relations.