Erdogan's Security Overhaul Secures Turkey a Key NATO Role Amid Western Silence on Repression
Under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey has transformed from a NATO outlier to a pivotal security partner for Europe amid shifting geopolitical dynamics. Despite longstanding European suspicion over Erdogan's crackdown on political opponents and previous resistance to Turkey hosting NATO summits or joining certain alliances, Turkey is now emerging as a crucial player. This shift is driven by the United States' reduced military involvement in Europe under Donald Trump and Europe's urgent need for drones, ammunition, and weapons, areas where Turkey's defense industry excels.
The NATO summit in Ankara, starting Tuesday, will host 32 alliance leaders and is expected to highlight Turkey's growing defense role. Erdogan may receive a significant gesture from Trump in the form of a potential sale of F-35 stealth fighters, reversing years of exclusion due to Turkey's purchase of Russian S-400 air defense systems. This prospect has raised concerns in Israel, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu publicly urging Trump to reconsider. Trump has emphasized the importance of his relationship with Erdogan, calling him a "very strong president with an excellent army."
Turkey's defense industry, now generating $10 billion annually, has quadrupled its exports since 2020, supplying the US, Europe, and other Western countries. Turkish firms have increased cooperation with European companies, including joint ventures to access European markets despite Turkey's exclusion from the EU's €150 billion security investment initiative. Turkey also aims to contribute to NATO's $28 billion infrastructure expansion plan, including underground fuel pipelines.
However, Erdogan's domestic repression continues, with recent arrests of opposition figures and activists, including the former Istanbul mayor and CHP party leader. Unlike in the past, European leaders are largely silent on these issues during the summit, opting for private diplomatic concerns rather than public criticism. This silence has drawn criticism from human rights advocates who warn it may embolden Erdogan's authoritarianism. Former US Ambassador David Satterfield stressed the importance of Western voices addressing Turkey's democratic backsliding to prevent irreversible decline.
Erdogan has called on Europe to remove barriers to defense cooperation and ensure a fair burden-sharing within NATO. His security industry revolution and strategic geographic position between Europe and the Black Sea have elevated Turkey's status as a central NATO anchor amid fears of Russian aggression and US military drawdown. While European skepticism remains beneath the surface, the alliance appears to prioritize pragmatic security needs over political concerns at this critical juncture.
