France Doubles Argentina as Favorite to Win 2026 World Cup After Round of 16 Start

The 2026 FIFA World Cup entered its Round of 16 stage on July 4, with 12 teams remaining to compete for quarterfinal spots. Following France's victory over Paraguay and Morocco's win against Canada, betting agencies updated their odds for the tournament winner. According to the popular betting site Polymarket, France now holds a 36% chance of winning the World Cup, more than double that of their closest rival, defending champion Argentina, which stands at 17%. Notably, Argentina's star player Lionel Messi individually has a 17% chance, matching his team's odds.

Other strong contenders include Spain with a 13% chance, while Brazil and England each have about a 7% chance to claim the title. Portugal follows with a 6% chance, and all other teams have odds below 3%. France's odds surged by 19 percentage points after their recent win, jumping from 17% to 36%, putting them well ahead of Argentina, whose odds were previously similar. Argentina is also expected to see an increase in their chances if they advance beyond the Round of 16.

The tournament continues with these top teams vying for the trophy, and the betting markets reflect shifting confidence as matches progress.