France Becomes Favorite to Win 2026 World Cup After Germany and Netherlands Exit
Following the elimination of Germany and the Netherlands from the 2026 World Cup, France has emerged as the tournament favorite according to Opta's latest odds. As of June 30, 2026, France holds a 22.47% chance to win the World Cup, up from 15.86% at the end of the group stage, despite not having played a knockout match yet. Their probability of reaching the final stands at 35.28%, based on 10,000 simulations run by the algorithm.
If France defeats Sweden in their upcoming match, they are set to face Paraguay in the round of 16, replacing Germany's spot. In the quarterfinals, they would likely meet Morocco instead of Canada. The potential semifinal opponents include Portugal, Croatia, Spain, Austria, the USA, Bosnia, Belgium, or Senegal.
Coach Didier Deschamps is expected to adjust the lineup by including Lucas Digne, Bradley Barcola, William Saliba, and Adrien Rabiot, while resting Theo Hernandez, Desire Doué, Manu Koné, and Maxence Lacroix. The current top contenders for the World Cup title after France are Argentina with a 15.9% chance, Spain at 13.2%, and Brazil at 11.3%.
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