Tens of Strikes, a Stream of Threats, and a Routine of “Ceasefire” Between Trump and Iran

More than two months have passed since US President Donald Trump declared a two-week ceasefire with Iran, and although relative calm has mostly been maintained between the sides, every so often, and especially over the past week, there have been exchanges of blows that could at any moment escalate into a real war. Between strikes by the US military, Trump also continues to issue threats against the ayatollahs’ regime, which responds with threats of its own against the American president, Israel and the Gulf states.

Over a little more than a week, four overnight exchanges of fire were recorded between Iran and the US, and in one additional incident Israel was involved after it struck in Beirut. Most of the American strikes were directed at air-defense sites and radar systems, while in response Iran attacked US military bases in Gulf states. The exchanges with Israel, which began after the IDF strike in Beirut, included salvos fired at wide areas in Israel.

Without an agreement, “we’ll blow them to pieces again tomorrow”

Just overnight, between Wednesday and Thursday, after explicit threats from Trump who promised that “the US will hit Iran very hard,” the American military struck a series of targets in the Islamic Republic, for the second night in a row. The wave of strikes lasted about four hours, and at its end US Central Command (CENTCOM) said it had struck military surveillance capabilities, communications systems and air-defense sites across Iran. According to CENTCOM’s statement, the strikes were carried out in response to Iran’s “unjustified and ongoing aggression.”

About two hours after the strikes began, Trump sent another threatening message and told Fox News in an interview that if Iran does not sign the deal the US wants, “we’ll blow them to pieces again tomorrow night.” Iran of course did not remain silent, and the Iranian military threatened that the armed forces would deliver “a crushing and decisive response to any American aggression in the region.” The commander of the Revolutionary Guards’ air and space force, Majid Mousavi, also joined the threats and said that Tehran “will turn the entire region into hell. This is the response to America’s aggression in the region.”

After the US strikes overnight, the Revolutionary Guards announced that they had attacked US military bases in Kuwait, Bahrain and Jordan in response. “Two waves of strikes hit 18 key targets of the US military at the Ali al-Salem and Ahmad al-Jaber bases in Kuwait, and at the Sheikh Isa Air Base in Bahrain,” they said in a statement. Iranian state media also reported an attack on the headquarters of the US Fifth Fleet in Bahrain. According to the Revolutionary Guards, the strikes were carried out in response to US attacks on the organization’s facilities, coastal positions, command sites of the police and the airport area in Bandar Abbas.

Later, the Revolutionary Guards also said they had fired 12 ballistic missiles at American aircraft and key military facilities at Al-Zarqa Air Base in Jordan, including its command and control center. Kuwait announced a temporary closure of its airspace following the strikes. “Flights that were en route to Kuwait were diverted to other destinations,” it said.

The downing of the American helicopter, and the response

The previous night as well, as noted, there were exchanges of blows between the sides, after Iran shot down an American helicopter over the Strait of Hormuz. US Central Command then announced that it had launched strikes “in self-defense” against Iran, on Trump’s orders. “The mission is a proportional response to the unjustified Iranian attack,” it said.

Satellite images revealed the Iranian strike on the Ramat David base.

About two hours later, US Central Command announced that it had completed the wave of strikes in Iran. “CENTCOM forces struck air-defense systems and radar sites in the Strait of Hormuz area using precision munitions launched from US Air Force and Navy aircraft,” it said. “We are prepared to respond to any unjustified Iranian aggression.” In response, Tehran attacked American targets in the Persian Gulf and Jordan.

The launches toward Israel

At the start of the week, after the IDF struck in the Dahieh, Iran launched an attack against Israel, with 11 missiles fired. In response, the Air Force launched an attack on targets in western and central Iran, and about an hour and a half later many Israeli citizens woke up to an alert about missile fire from Yemen. The Iranians themselves again launched dozens of missiles in several waves, and in one of them a hangar at the Ramat David Air Force base was hit.

The IDF response to the missile launches from the Islamic Republic included an Air Force strike on the petrochemical plant “Karon” in the port city of Mahshahr in southwestern Iran. In addition, the IDF also struck Iran’s air-defense systems. The attacks on targets in western and central Iran took place for the first time since the ceasefire announcement that ended Operation “Rising Lion” two months ago. The IDF Spokesperson said the Air Force struck several targets in the petrochemical complex in Mahshahr.

Drones were launched at tankers in Hormuz, the US struck radar sites

Even last weekend there were exchanges of fire between Iran and the US. The American military struck coastal surveillance radar sites in southern Iran on the night between Friday and Saturday, in response to the launch of suicide drones toward the Strait of Hormuz. In Iran they claimed: “It was warning fire.” After the American strike, the Revolutionary Guards said that “we attacked American bases in the region.” Regarding the launch of the drones in the Strait of Hormuz, they said the target was four tankers that tried to cross “without permission.” There were no casualties in the strikes.

CENTCOM updated that six of the seven ballistic missiles launched toward Kuwait and Bahrain were intercepted, while the seventh “did not reach its target.” In an interview with NBC, Trump claimed at the time that most of Iran’s drone factories, launchers and even most of its missiles were destroyed during the war. “They have some missiles and drones. In percentage terms, I would say maybe 21% to 22% of the missiles they had. That’s a lot of missiles, but it’s not what it was before the war,” he said.

Exchanges of fire, and accusations

Last week, on the night between Tuesday and Wednesday, sirens were heard in Bahrain and Kuwait about an hour after the US announced that it had struck an empty oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz, on its way to one of Iran’s ports. The Revolutionary Guards took responsibility for a missile and drone attack in the Gulf, directed at American bases. CNN described those overnight exchanges as “the largest strikes in weeks, as the ceasefire is in doubt.” In the week since then, there have been, as noted, many more exchanges of fire between the sides.

According to the Revolutionary Guards, the attack began in response to an American strike on Qeshm Island in the Persian Gulf, which, according to the Americans, came in response to an Iranian attack. The US military confirmed that it struck on Qeshm Island, but said Iran attacked first. According to the military statement, Iran fired five ballistic missiles at neighboring countries, three toward Bahrain and two toward Kuwait. The missiles fired at Bahrain were intercepted by air-defense systems, and those launched toward Kuwait disintegrated en route. It was also reported that the US military intercepted three drones.

In a statement issued by the Revolutionary Guards, it was said that “in response to the aggression against the oil tanker, the naval forces of the Revolutionary Guards struck the American-Israeli enemy ship ‘Fanaia’ with missiles. In a renewed attack, the American enemy struck a communications tower of the Revolutionary Guards in the south of Qeshm Island. In response, we struck with missiles and drones an air force base located in one of the countries in the region, and the headquarters of the US Fifth Fleet. We warned previously that in the event of any aggression, the response would be different and much harsher, and that is exactly what we did.”