Former Israeli Consul Says This Is What Really Fears Trump
The wave of American attacks in Iran continued overnight, Thursday, in response to the downing of the U.S. helicopter in the Strait of Hormuz, as President Donald Trump’s patience appears to be wearing thin. Yaki Dayan, former Israeli consul in Los Angeles, analyzes the increasingly complicated campaign and points to deep frustration in Washington amid failed attempts to reach an agreement. “We got more of the same last night,” Dayan explains. “Trump is acting out of great frustration and is trying to signal to the Iranians that they have crossed the line, in the hope that they will soften on a deal. Since March 3, he has already said more than 40 times that ‘there will be a deal in two days,’ and time is passing.”
“The Iranians are simply making a fool of him. Shooting down an American helicopter in Hormuz is crossing a red line that Trump could not ignore, but he is still trying to keep the response at a low level so as not to close the door to negotiations. In Tehran, they have fully understood that the administration has no appetite to return to fighting.”
“Trump needs a victory image”
According to Dayan, the heavy economic siege combined with measured military strikes is intended mainly to signal to the Iranians that the U.S. is preparing the ground and neutralizing their air and naval defense systems, in preparation for the possibility of a larger operation if needed. However, the president’s main goal remains diplomatic: “Trump has to come out with a victory image, and for him that means an agreement, removing enriched uranium from Iran and signing a halt to enrichment. Otherwise, the American public will ask why he even launched this campaign.”
The domestic economic difficulty is also affecting the administration’s considerations, especially after it was published yesterday that the consumer price index in the U.S. jumped by 4.2%, a figure reflected in the disappointing polls Trump received on his handling of the economy just before the opening of the World Cup tournament.
Why is Washington restricting Israel?
Later in his remarks, Dayan addressed the clear restrictions the White House is placing on Jerusalem’s freedom of action during this sensitive period. “Trump is fully focused on securing the agreement, and anything that interferes with achieving that goal, he wants to stop. He wants to maintain full control of the arena and fears that if he loosens the leash on Israel, he will lose control and the event will drag him into a much broader campaign than he had planned.”
At the same time, Dayan identifies the Trump card that could change the game if the situation deteriorates into all-out war: “If he nonetheless gets drawn into a broad war, it is very possible that he will loosen the leash, because from his perspective Israel is the tiger Trump can unleash against the Iranians. It is another pressure tool in his toolbox.”
Dayan concluded his remarks with a warning about the message reaching Tehran: “The Iranians currently feel empowered, they shot down an American helicopter and are taking advantage of the situation. Trump’s conduct and the unclear boundaries he is setting signal weakness, and in the Middle East they detect that immediately.”
