Unintended, Netanyahu Is on Track for a Major Win

Channel 12 political commentator Amit Segal reports that there has been very significant progress in Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s efforts to abolish Likud’s traditional primary elections and replace them with a slate-making committee ahead of the upcoming election.

According to the report, the move, which originally began as a political “trial balloon” intended only to allow Netanyahu to secure approval for a few reserved spots on the list, is now gaining real momentum and is becoming a practical, concrete plan being shaped by the movement’s leadership.

Behind the dramatic move are three main factors pushing the party’s leaders to promote the forced change: the wave of defections from the faction, with seven members of the Likud faction having resigned during the last term, which created a sense of instability; the freezing of the current list, with an emerging understanding in the political system that the party’s present slate will be kept almost in full, with only one or two exceptions, effectively making a broad contest unnecessary; and findings from the State Comptroller’s report, which exposed serious and complex problems regarding an illegal mass membership drive conducted within the movement, raising major concerns about improper election tactics.

The emerging format of the plan in Likud includes the creation of a special committee, in which party mayors from major cities will take part alongside well-known public figures. This committee will be responsible for determining the order of the candidates on the list up to place 32. At the same time, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu would receive broad authority and propose seven personal reserved spots in different places on the list, in order to bring in outside figures according to his strategic view.

“Primaries will lead to the election of problematic figures”

During a lengthy closed-door discussion held last night, Netanyahu took a firm line against holding the primary elections, arguing that they would severely damage the party’s chances of winning the general election. Netanyahu told faction members that the high cost of the primaries, estimated at about 12 million shekels, is in effect “a direct donation to the campaign of Gadi Eisenkot and Naftali Bennett.”

According to the prime minister, the inevitable political radicalization that an internal election would trigger, something already clearly visible in the Knesset corridors, would harm the party’s image. He also warned that holding primaries would inevitably lead to the election of problematic figures on the list. Netanyahu did not name anyone explicitly, but those in the room understood perfectly who he meant.

It should be noted that the dramatic move is far from final and still requires complex procedural approvals within the movement’s institutions. To take effect, the plan will need formal approval by a simple majority in Likud’s Constitution Committee, the party secretariat, and ultimately the Likud Central Committee.