Tensions at Peak as a New Wartime Equation Takes Shape

The latest wave of strikes on Iran overnight Wednesday to Thursday, described by the Pentagon as “power diplomacy,” was intended to force Tehran to soften its position at the negotiating table over a new nuclear deal. While Trump seeks to project control over the crisis and is sending calming messages through intermediaries that he does not intend to launch a full-scale war, Iran responded with its own strikes on American bases and targets in the region, raising fears that the fragile ceasefire that had held for months has finally collapsed.

The American strikes began just hours after Trump declared that Iran was “taking us for fools” because it had not accepted U.S. terms for a new nuclear agreement. The president also said, “We will strike hard.” U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth sharpened the aggressive line when he said, “If we need to negotiate with bombs, we will negotiate with bombs. We are very good at it. There is no one better in the world.”

The American strikes focused on air defense systems and radar sites near the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian media reported explosions across the country, including in Karaj near Tehran.

According to The Wall Street Journal, despite the harsh images, American officials stressed that Trump has not given up the diplomatic channel. After ordering the wave of strikes, he instructed his aides to convey a message to Tehran through Qatar, which is mediating between the sides. He made clear that the strikes were a targeted response to the downing of an American Apache helicopter the day before, not a declaration of full-scale war. Trump himself described the situation cynically when he told reporters, “In this part of the world, a ‘ceasefire’ means you are shooting a little more moderately.”

Iran’s response did not take long, but it focused on American targets and avoided hitting Israel. Tehran said it had attacked the U.S. Fifth Fleet stationed in Bahrain with drones. Following reports of missile and drone attacks, sirens were activated in Bahrain and residents were told to take shelter. The Kuwaiti military and the U.S. embassy in Jordan also issued similar warnings to citizens.

At the same time, the escalating fighting between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon, Iran’s proxy, continues to hinder efforts to reach calm, with analysts saying Trump is having difficulty restraining the scope of Israeli strikes.

At home, Trump is dealing with severe economic consequences of the crisis. Although he insists the situation is under control and is applying an “economic vice” that includes sanctions and a trade blockade on Iran, officials in the administration admit he did not anticipate the force of the Iranian response.

U.S. inflation has jumped to a three-year high, and rising fuel prices are eroding Americans’ wage gains. In addition, tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, the lifeline of global oil, are keeping fuel prices high, putting the Republican Party at risk ahead of the midterm elections.

The gaps between the sides remain deep. Trump is demanding much tougher terms than those in the 2015 nuclear deal, including the destruction of enriched uranium and a halt to enrichment for at least a decade. Iran, for its part, is demanding sanctions relief and the release of assets worth billions of dollars before entering serious negotiations.

Experts warn that the current situation, in which both sides fear full escalation but also an expensive compromise, could turn the conflict into an “endless war” in which difficult decisions are postponed again and again.