A Coalition Without the Haredim? That Will Not Solve the Draft Crisis
The fantasies of the secular public, like the fears of the Haredim, are not likely to come true. As always, declarations that are good for a campaign turn out the day after the election to be problematic at best, and in most cases false.
In a few months, when the government is close to completing its term and the election campaign approaches, everyone will be taking stock of this period. The October 7 massacre, the Simchat Torah massacre, will of course stand at the center of the discussion. The most dramatic event since the founding of the state, together with its consequences, from the conquest of Gaza to the strike in Iran, will determine how the current leadership is remembered and how it is judged at the ballot box and in historical terms.
But alongside what is happening on the borders, and even beyond them, October 7 is also the sign of a change in Israel's internal agenda. Until then we were talking, and mainly fighting, here about the judicial overhaul, and מאז, under the shadow of the draft law, the hot issue that will not let go is the relationship between Haredi society and the state.
When Tommy Lapid led the Shinui party in the elections more than twenty years ago under the slogan, "A government without Haredim," he probably did not imagine that not only would he succeed in keeping that promise, under Ariel Sharon, but that his son Yair would also do it twice, with Netanyahu in 2013 and with Bennett in 2021. Apart from those three governments, none of which managed to last or even come close to a full four-year term, one has to go very far back in time to remember a coalition in which Haredi parties were not partners.
Tommy Lapid is no longer with us, Yair Lapid is probably not going to be prime minister or even finance minister anytime soon, but the coming elections offer a chance for a political situation in which there will be no Haredi parties in the coalition. How could that happen? If the election results are similar to what we consistently see in most polls, then the opposition, with or without Mansour Abbas and Ra'am, and make no mistake, they will be brought into the coalition if their votes make the difference, will form a government that Shas and United Torah Judaism will not be part of. There is another possibility, one that is not often discussed, Netanyahu exits the game before or after the election, and a unity government is formed without the Haredim. Although breaking the alliance between the Haredim and Likud currently seems quite fantastical, I have no doubt that Likud lawmakers would prefer to be ministers in a government rather than sit in the opposition with no prospect of returning to power.
So let us assume that a government without Haredim is indeed formed, and for now it does not matter who heads it, Bennett, Eisenkot or Liberman. What exactly is expected to happen regarding the relationship between the Haredim and the State of Israel? Both sides are currently talking about a revolution. Bennett, Eisenkot, Yair Golan and Liberman promise the enlistment of all yeshiva students, except for prodigies who will receive exemptions, as Ben-Gurion decided, an immediate end to all economic benefits for anyone who does not serve, a massive shift to state-supervised Haredi education, and the dismantling of Haredi autonomy, under which many laws are not really enforced in Haredi communities. Porush, Deri and Pindrus paint the same scenario, of course from the perspective of a nightmare that may come true.
Allow me to spoil the drama, the fantasies of the secular public, like the fears of the Haredim, will not really materialize. As always, declarations that are good for a campaign turn out the day after the election to be problematic at best, and false in most cases. It is not that I doubt the opposition parties' desire to see a new Haredi society that shares in the heavy security and economic burden that reality here places on us, but the road there is so long and winding.
One does not need to see the violent protests and the intensity of the opposition to understand how far this generation of Haredim is from enlistment. Even without broken windows, blocked roads, wounded people and arrests, any conversation with a yeshiva student makes clear the mental gap between him and someone his age outside the Haredi community. The IDF is short thousands of fighters? They will not come from Bnei Brak, Modi'in Illit or Beit Shemesh.
What, then, could happen? Good question. On the one hand, a coalition without Haredim will not deal at all with a tailored draft law. On the other hand, it also knows that over time it is impossible to turn tens of thousands of people into criminals simply because they do not enlist. It can be assumed that the steps will focus on the economy and education, and perhaps there will even be a rare attempt to stop funding unrecognized institutions, all in the hope that these steps will cause many Haredim to seek institutions that teach core studies, enter the workforce and even enlist. Not immediately, certainly not in large numbers, but a significant step in that direction.
The second scenario is a victory for the current coalition in the election and the continuation of the alliance between Netanyahu and the Haredim. There is no scenario in which Netanyahu does not go with Shas and United Torah Judaism, which despite all the public confrontations and the supposed breakaways are still the most loyal parties in any coalition he forms. In such a case nothing is expected to change, it is doubtful a draft law will pass, and even if it does, it is doubtful the High Court of Justice will not strike it down. But the coalition will do everything to ease the burden on those liable for military service and preserve the centers of power in Haredi society.
It is a bit strange, but it would not be far-fetched if three years after an unimaginable security event that sparked a war that changed the region, Syria changed its regime, the entire top leadership of Hezbollah and Hamas was eliminated, and the Iranian nuclear project was destroyed, the citizens of Israel go to the polls with the issue of Haredi enlistment at the top of the agenda.
It is possible that the coming election will mark another milestone in the relationship between Haredi society and the State of Israel, and a new era will begin that the Haredi leadership may be able to live with, but will definitely not like.
The article is provided courtesy of the weekly magazine Matzav HaRuach.
