Iran is using disruption in the Strait of Hormuz to force President Donald Trump into restraint, according to the article, while tensions also rise around Lebanon. The bottleneck in the waterway is said to be preventing a forceful U.S. response, even as roughly one-fifth of global energy supply remains effectively choked and Washington looks for a way to restore normal shipping.
The article says about 850 vessels and tankers are currently under heavy restriction in the Persian Gulf basin, and have been stuck or disrupted for nearly four months, since February 28, 2026. More than 150 very large crude carriers are also waiting in the Gulf of Oman for a safe entry signal that has not yet appeared. Together, the stranded fleet is described as an important strategic reserve handling about 20% of global crude oil supply and a similar share of LNG traffic.
Traffic through the strait is reportedly only about 30% of normal. Instead of 100 to 130 ships a day, only 20 to 40 large ships are now able to pass daily. The main international shipping lane remains fully mined, forcing traffic into narrow side routes off Oman and Iran, creating a physical choke point and raising collision risks.
Security fears are adding to the paralysis. Fresh Iranian threats after the escalation in Lebanon have led many shipping companies to shut off AIS trackers or wait outside the danger zone, while war-risk insurance premiums remain hundreds of percent above normal. The article says clearing mines alone would take at least 30 continuous days, and fully relieving the bottleneck would take 60 to 90 days, or about two to three months, assuming no further escalation. Only then, it argues, could Washington change the rules of the game.
