In recent days, multiple Likud figures have pressed Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his bureau to dissolve the Knesset. Their main argument is that ongoing fights over legislation promoted by ultra-Orthodox parties, including the daycare subsidies law, Torah study provisions, and the kosher supervision bill, are damaging the party electorally.
A second concern presented to Netanyahu is a low-probability but still plausible scenario in which he does not reach the next election while still serving as prime minister. The fear is that disgruntled Likud lawmakers or ultra-Orthodox MKs could seek revenge over internal disputes and join the opposition in a constructive no-confidence vote that would topple the government.
Under Israel’s constructive no-confidence mechanism, the opposition must secure at least 61 MKs and simultaneously present an alternative prime minister, governing principles, and a new coalition lineup. If the motion passes, the sitting government falls and the alternative premier is sworn in.
One party source said Netanyahu sometimes overreads threats, but added that in politics “anything can happen.” The same source pointed to the recent State Comptroller election, saying that “eight or nine” coalition members had already voted against the bloc in secret. He warned that anger over internal party standing, primary decisions in Likud, or a final break by the ultra-Orthodox could make any scenario possible.
The pressure is being amplified by the crisis with the ultra-Orthodox parties. Shas is insisting on advancing the kosher law next week, while anger in the haredi camp over the coalition’s conduct has already delayed a planned meeting of coalition leaders that was supposed to set legislative priorities. Likud sources said the party wants to control the timetable rather than be caught off guard, but Netanyahu is not officially moving to dissolve the Knesset at this stage.
