Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has convened coalition party leaders for a meeting expected Tuesday evening, with the main issue likely to be when to dissolve the Knesset. The coalition is split sharply over ultra-Orthodox demands, which face resistance inside Likud and the Religious Zionism party.
According to Likud sources, Netanyahu recently reviewed internal polls showing that an election centered on religion and state, especially Haredi military enlistment, would hurt not only soft-right voters but also Likud's base and Religious Zionism supporters. That has made some in the coalition, including Netanyahu and Religious Zionism, reluctant to allow a last-minute burst of ultra-Orthodox legislation before an election.
One option is to reach a deal on the Haredi-backed bills Netanyahu can accept, in order to delay the legislative fight a bit longer and pass the bill to split the attorney general's role, which is said to be two to three weeks from final approval. Another option is to agree now, with all party leaders, to dissolve the Knesset as early as next week and set a mutually accepted election date, with October 20 emerging as the leading choice.
The Haredi factions have been pressing a package of laws after failing to advance their draft exemption bill. Their main demand is a bill that would bypass the High Court and restore housing subsidies for yeshiva students who do not enlist, even though the court ruled the benefit should be stopped. The bill already passed preliminary reading and is being prepared for first reading, but Netanyahu has decided not to move it forward. Instead, government secretary Yossi Fuchs explored a one-year emergency arrangement to freeze arrests for those proven to be studying תורה, a proposal Aryeh Deri of Shas accepted, while Moshe Gafni of United Torah Judaism rejected any trade and demanded immediate dissolution if the subsidy bill is not advanced.
Also in play is a Basic Law on Torah study, which was supposed to advance in the Constitution Committee headed by Simcha Rothman, but he has not scheduled discussions and wanted to move it to the Knesset Committee, citing workload. United Torah Judaism and Religious Zionism also oppose advancing that bill because they believe it would hurt them politically. At the same time, Deri wants to revive legislation canceling the kosher reform introduced by Matan Kahana's government. Separately, Central Elections Committee director general Adv. Dean Libner told party representatives on Monday that no arrests of Haredi draft evaders will take place on election day, to avoid deterring them from voting. Netanyahu now appears to be choosing between paying a high political price to the Haredi parties or moving quickly to dissolve the Knesset while preserving the coalition bloc.
