Against the backdrop of fighting in southern Lebanon and the signing of a memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran, the article says Israel has fallen into one of the deepest strategic and moral troughs of the war since October 7, perhaps one of the worst in its history. It argues that instead of searching immediately for culprits, Israel must quickly build an alternative strategy to escape the crisis with minimal damage, and leave blame for the coming election campaign.
The writer says the United States has not won a war since World War II, because its enemies were often ideologically driven and willing to absorb heavy losses, while American society is sensitive to casualties and cost. He also says U.S. wars are constrained by increasingly strict humanitarian rules. On that basis, the article portrays Donald Trump as impulsive and self-interested, warning that Israel cannot rely on a personal long-term relationship with him, only on the broader U.S.-Israel relationship.
The article says Israel is undermined by public distrust of the government and by poor hasbara, or public diplomacy, which leaves both Israelis and foreign allies unconvinced about why the army and government are acting in Lebanon. It argues that an “advanced security zone” in southern Lebanon cannot stop rockets, drones, and UAVs, and that Israeli forces should instead destroy Hezbollah’s underground and above-ground infrastructure in the eastern and southern Nabatieh area, including the Badr sector and sites under Mount Ali Taher, from which fire has reached the Galilee, Haifa, and Tiberias.
The writer says Lebanon has changed since Operation Northern Arrows in fall 2024, with the Lebanese government and much of the public, including parts of the Shiite community, now wanting Hezbollah disarmed or at least stopped from fighting Israel on Iran’s orders. For the first time, the Lebanese government has also said openly that it wants a lasting non-belligerency arrangement with Israel. The article says Israel should exploit that shift, along with the linkage between the Lebanese and Iranian fronts, to pressure Tehran into restraining Hezbollah.
It then lays out five steps: avoid confrontation with Trump and coordinate moves with him; get him to demand that Iran restrain Hezbollah, with help from Marco Rubio, Pete Hegseth, and CENTCOM; launch a major public diplomacy effort while signaling willingness to withdraw from most of the forward zone if Galilee security is guaranteed by a deal with Beirut backed by the U.S., Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and France; accelerate negotiations with Lebanon while dismantling Hezbollah’s heavy weapons and infrastructure; and urgently strengthen the Lebanese Army and Lebanon’s recovery so Iran cannot dominate the country through funds released after a U.S.-Iran deal.
