Analyst Says U.S.-Iran Understanding Strengthens Hezbollah in Lebanon

Roi Kais, an Arab affairs analyst for Kan 11, argued that Lebanon’s inclusion in a ceasefire framework within a U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding creates what he called a “Middle Eastern absurdity.” In his view, the move alters Lebanon’s balance of power just after Donald Trump’s administration advanced a direct and unprecedented negotiation track between Israel and Lebanon.

Kais said the original purpose of the Israel-Lebanon talks was to strengthen official decision-making in Beirut and shift influence away from Hezbollah and Iran toward Lebanon’s state institutions. He said Hezbollah opposed the talks, and Tehran saw them as a threat to the Iranian influence built in Lebanon over many years.

By bringing the Lebanese front and its ceasefire into the U.S.-Iran understanding, Kais said, the arrangement brought Lebanon back in through the “front door.” He said the result is the opposite of the original goal, because it strengthens Iranian influence and Hezbollah while weakening the Lebanese state, which had been relying on the possibility of direct talks with Israel.

As evidence of the mood in Lebanon, Kais cited a cartoon circulating in recent days online. It showed veteran Shiite parliament speaker Nabih Berri, a traditional Hezbollah ally, smiling at the understandings, while Christian President Joseph Aoun and Sunni Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, both identified with promoting direct negotiations with Israel, looked disappointed. Kais concluded that what Iran gained was “the one-front unity on steroids,” saying the memorandum pulls Iran and Hezbollah back to the center of the Lebanese arena rather than separating the state from Hezbollah.