The security researcher who is certain: this is the country that should keep us awake at night
Dr. Oshrit Birudkar says that in recent months, almost out of nowhere, Pakistan has positioned itself as a key player in the Middle East and won the trust of both Iran and the United States as a mediator in talks toward a deal. Where did it suddenly come from? “After what has happened in recent months, this status is not so surprising. Pakistan reached out personally to President Donald Trump, and also to members of his family, in order to create influence in Washington. Under Trump’s first administration it was something of a side show, but in Trump’s second administration it has proven much more useful.”
How much more useful? “Trump has been cultivating ties with the Pakistanis, especially since Operation Sindoor about a year ago. This was an operation initiated by India after an attack carried out by Pakistani terrorists at a resort in Kashmir, which led to a confrontation between the countries. Trump then took credit for the ceasefire, but the Indians claimed he had nothing to do with it. The Pakistanis, by contrast, backed the United States and even recommended Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize.
“After that, there was a series of meetings between Pakistan’s army chief, Asim Munir, and Trump, including a lunch at the White House. This was the first time a U.S. president hosted an army chief for such a meeting, a status that underscored the fact that Munir is seen as Pakistan’s de facto leader.”
Dr. Oshrit Birudkar, 38. Personal: single. Professional: senior researcher at the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS), and CEO and founder of the technology solutions company Indivade. Also: speaks Hindi and Marathi, her family belonged to the Bene Israel community in India.
A meeting like that also indicates that this is an army with a state, not the other way around. “That’s right. Pakistan calls itself a democracy, but in practice it is a dictatorship that has gone through periods of military rule, and even when it is not under military rule, it is effectively controlled by the military establishment.”
Forty percent poor, huge debts and a war that does not help. How would a deal to end the war between the United States and Iran serve Pakistan? “It has a clear interest in ending the war. First of all, there is the demographic aspect, Iran is mainly Shiite and Pakistan is Sunni, but there are also about 45 million Shiites living in Pakistan, the second-largest Shiite population in the world. A prolonged frontline war would not only threaten the shared border between the countries, it could also split Pakistan’s domestic politics along religious fault lines that already exist.”
There is also the economic aspect. Pakistan’s economy has been in severe crisis for several years, including inflation, a balance of payments crisis, and erosion in the value of its currency. The war has only made matters worse.
“Yes, and the reason is Pakistan’s dependence on energy from the Middle East. Eighty percent of its energy comes from Gulf states, mainly Saudi Arabia. Because of the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz, far fewer gas and oil tankers have been able to reach it.”
But Pakistan was not always in such bad economic shape. It has undergone a transformation over the past 50 years.
“Pakistan went from being one of the richest economies in South Asia to one of the poorest. This happened because of poor management and population growth that undermined savings, investment and growth. Today, about 40 percent of residents live in poverty. In addition, it is trapped in a dangerous debt cycle. Most of its foreign currency reserves are based on money lent to it by other countries and the International Monetary Fund, which saved it from collapse after the coronavirus pandemic.
“Pakistan needs American backing in order to continue receiving IMF support, so it is much more obedient than India. The Indians want to show, we are not anyone’s puppet. Pakistan accepts that it is a puppet, but it also pays a price vis-à-vis Iran. For example, the Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline, known as the ‘Peace Pipeline,’ began construction more than a decade ago, but was never completed, because U.S. sanctions on Iran forced Pakistan to halt construction on its side.”
Proximity to the Saudi crown prince and the threat of revenge. Let’s talk about the conflict of interests: Pakistan is drawing closer to Iran, but it has a defense agreement with Saudi Arabia, which is its rival. How does that add up? “Relations between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan have always been close, but since Munir was appointed army chief in 2022, they have become a personal relationship between him and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Munir served as a military attaché in Saudi Arabia and grew up in a religiously conservative home. He identifies as Sunni and religion plays a very significant role for him. That is why signing a defense agreement with Sunni Saudi Arabia is not surprising. But not everyone in Pakistan is happy that it is lining up with Saudi Arabia. This could backfire on Munir in public opinion.”
Reuters recently reported that Pakistan sent air defense forces to Saudi Arabia to bolster its army against the backdrop of Operation Lion’s Roar, while acting as mediator between Iran and the United States. “On paper, this looks like a complete conflict of interest. Pakistan is mediating between Iran and the United States, and at the same time sending air defense forces to a country that is Iran’s rival. In addition, millions of Pakistanis work in Gulf states and send home billions of dollars every year. Saudi Arabia also has a $3 billion deposit in Pakistan’s foreign currency reserves, that is the backbone of the Pakistani economy. The story of true neutrality in mediation in such a situation is almost impossible, when Pakistan has a clear tilt toward Saudi Arabia.”
So can one sum up relations between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan as “energy and money in exchange for military protection”? Does that protection also include Saudi Arabia’s nuclear program? According to estimates, Saudi Arabia has about 170 nuclear warheads, similar to India.
“When the defense agreement was signed last September, Pakistan’s defense minister Khawaja Asif hinted that nuclear weapons were included in the deal, but later walked it back. So officially nuclear weapons are not included, but clearly the agreement is meant to serve as a protective umbrella for Saudi Arabia, including in extreme cases.
“It is also worth noting the timing: the defense agreement was signed after the Israeli attack in Doha, Qatar. This was a defining moment in which Gulf states realized that although they are rich in resources, they are militarily weak, and therefore need defense systems, whether military or diplomatic. Pakistan has cultivated its ties with Gulf states for years because it understood that this was an asset for it, and today, as its economy is collapsing, it is cashing in on that promissory note, for example through the support it receives from Gulf states as a mediator.”
“India already has nuclear weapons, and that is enough for Pakistan.” What does the status Pakistan has reached as mediator mean for Israel?
“Pakistan is known as a staunchly anti-Israel state and a supporter of terrorism. It supports Hamas, and after October 7 it even expressed willingness to host senior members of the organization as refugees in its country and to receive them in the streets like celebrities. In addition, its official education books are full of antisemitism: Judaism is not even mentioned there as a religion, the Holocaust is denied and Hitler is portrayed as a hero who wanted to restore national pride to his country. That should keep us awake at night.”
Pakistan has a significant nuclear program. What is its position on Iranian nuclear capability?
“Pakistan’s enemy is India, which has nuclear weapons, and that is enough for it. It would not want to see Iran with nuclear deterrent capability as well. Pakistan also sees itself as the state of the Muslim people, the ‘army of the nation.’ Even in the agreement with Saudi Arabia, Pakistan has a role as guardian of the holy sites. I called this alliance between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia ‘Islamic NATO.’ Pakistan wants to be the protective leader of the Muslim world, and in its view the nation is ruled by Sunnis. Iran challenges that hegemony.”
In that sense, there is actually an alignment of interests with Israel.
“Perhaps, but this is pragmatism that is right for the moment. It is worth recalling that in 2020, after the signing of the Abraham Accords, there was a real debate in Pakistan about whether to join as well. At that time, it looked as if the world was moving in one direction, toward Israel. So there were voices in Pakistan saying, maybe we should pause all this pan-Islamism. Look at India, which is far more successful economically than we are, it is a friend of Israel. As a farming country, we too could get Israeli technology. The Pakistanis thought such a move would help them open doors in Washington, but in the meantime they managed to open the doors themselves.”
What will happen to Pakistan’s standing if the negotiations collapse and the war resumes?
“If the war resumes, Pakistan’s credibility as a mediator will be damaged, including Munir’s reputation. The lack of trust with Iran will deepen, and Pakistan, with its fragile economy and deep dependence on its relations with the United States, will remain exposed to the consequences. However, even if the mediation does not prevent the fighting from resuming, Pakistan has already derived diplomatic gains from it that will not be erased. It has returned to the center of international discourse after a period of relative isolation, and strengthened its standing with Washington.”
