Hapoel Tel Aviv faces long odds after Maccabi takes 2-0 finals lead

Maccabi Tel Aviv went up 2-0 over Hapoel Tel Aviv in the championship series on Thursday, leaving Hapoel needing to win every remaining game to take the title, including two games in Maccabi's home arena. The article frames the situation as an extreme historical uphill battle: in 116 of 119 series in which a team led 2-0, that team went on to win.

In the current series, only one finals matchup in Israeli basketball history has ever gone to five games, the 1991/92 final between Maccabi and Hapoel Tel Aviv, remembered for the Levon Mercer punch. Every other finals series ended in three or four games, and Maccabi Tel Aviv has never lost a championship series.

Since 2000, only three series have seen a team recover from a 2-0 deficit. Maccabi Rishon LeZion did it in 2011/12 in the first round against Ashkelon and advanced with home-court advantage. Maccabi Tel Aviv also led Hapoel Eilat 2-0, then lost the next three games, including a decisive Game 5 at home, and was eliminated.

The other comebacks came from Hapoel Jerusalem in 2016/17, when it trailed Nahariya 2-0, turned the series around to 3-2, and went on to win the championship behind Jerome Dyson and Lior Eliyahu. In 2012/13, Maccabi Haifa led Hapoel Eilat 2-0, was pushed to 2-2, won Game 5 in Romema, and then captured the title against Maccabi Tel Aviv. Altogether, only three of 119 series in the 21st century have seen a 2-0 lead squandered, a 97.4% success rate for the team in front.