Israel Sees Lebanon as the Holding Pattern Until a Possible Iran Opening in November

Jerusalem is hoping that the U.S.-Iran understanding pushed by President Donald Trump will not become a final deal. Israeli officials are operating on the assumption that the current 60-day negotiation period will end without a permanent agreement, and that November, after the U.S. midterm elections, could open a new window for action on Iran.

According to the Israeli assessment, Iran is not negotiating in good faith and is mainly trying to buy time without fully meeting the commitments set out in the memorandum of understanding. If no long-term deal is signed by then, Israel believes it will be able to tell Washington, “We told you so,” and move against Tehran again once the political timing in the United States changes.

For now, Israel’s main immediate battle is over keeping the Israel Defense Forces’ security zone in southern Lebanon. Senior officials in Jerusalem say pressure to withdraw continues, but they say there is still U.S. agreement that Israel must retain freedom of action in Lebanon. The prime minister sees an Israeli withdrawal as a red line.

Benjamin Netanyahu’s formula is that if Hezbollah fires at Israeli cities, Israel will strike Beirut. Iran has repeatedly warned that if Israel attacks Beirut, it will attack Israel, while Jerusalem says it would not absorb such an attack and would instead hit Iranian territory. The memorandum also says the United States, Iran, and their allies will immediately and permanently end military operations on all fronts, including Lebanon, and will not initiate war or use force against one another. Washington worries that an Israeli strike in Beirut, especially in the Dahieh district, could trigger direct Iran-Israel escalation. Trump has said Israel may defend itself, but should act with restraint, a view Israel rejects. The current strategy is to hold the Lebanon position, respond forcefully to Hezbollah attacks, and wait for November.