Poll Shows IDF Draft of Haredim Not Top Priority for Religious Zionist Voters
A new poll conducted among religious Zionist Israelis reveals that the issue of drafting ultra-Orthodox men into the IDF is not a primary concern for voters of the Religious Zionism party, despite its prominence in the rhetoric of party leader and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich. The survey, conducted by the Dialog Institute for ynet and Yediot Ahronot, found that only 15% of religious Zionist respondents consider the draft issue and "burden sharing" the most significant factor in their voting decisions. Among "national-religious" respondents, considered Smotrich's ideological base, this figure drops to just 7%.
Instead, security policy ranked as the top priority for 35% of all respondents, followed by Jewish identity (25%) and settlement in Judea and Samaria (14%). For the "national-religious" group, security and Jewish identity were tied at 34% each. These findings challenge the narrative that the Haredi draft is the central issue guiding the national-religious vote, suggesting it is less critical to voters than often portrayed in political discourse and media.
Furthermore, the poll indicates that a significant majority of religious Zionist respondents, 80%, feel that the government's actions regarding the Haredi draft align with their views to some extent, contradicting claims of widespread opposition. Only 17% stated that the government's policy does not represent their views at all. This contrasts sharply with the opposition's characterization of the government as one that enables draft evasion.
The survey also highlighted Smotrich's party's electoral standing. Even after a technical merger with Moshe Feiglin's Zehut party, the joint list garners only 30% support among religious Zionist voters, placing it first within the sector but still short of a decisive majority. Nationally, the combined list is projected to win only about five Knesset seats, close to the electoral threshold.
Other parties also received support within the sector: Likud garnered 17%, Itamar Ben-Gvir's Otzma Yehudit received 12%, and Ofer Winter's "Am Israel" party secured 6%. Notably, 4% of respondents supported the ultra-Orthodox Shas party, indicating that some religious Zionist voters do not see Shas's stance on the draft as an obstacle to their vote. The poll was conducted between August 31 and September 2, with a maximum margin of error of 4.4%.
