On the bracket: what will the knockout stage look like?

With all due respect to the group stage, the real World Cup will begin much later. When will Messi face Ronaldo? Which giants could meet in the round of 16, and what will the classic road to the final look like in a tournament with no surprises?

Sport 5 Published: 10.06.26, 18:44 Photo: Sport 5 104 matches will be played at the upcoming World Cup, and the vast majority will take place in the group stage, the longest ever. But what happens in the knockout rounds? We decided to let our imagination run, use calculators, and examine what the biggest matches could be in the truly decisive stages. When could Cristiano Ronaldo meet Leo Messi? Which are the two biggest teams that will meet in the round of 16, and which team has the easiest path to the final in New Jersey?

First, we activated our supercomputer to predict who would go the farthest, as a kind of template, in a world of course with no surprises. We ranked the 48 teams by their chances of winning the tournament, based on bookmakers and FIFA rankings, and used that to determine the teams advancing from the group stage and at every knockout stage through the grand final on July 19. It should be noted that FIFA made a precedent-setting decision before the group draw that Argentina and Spain would not be able to meet until the final, if both finish first in their groups. The same applies to FIFA’s third- and fourth-ranked teams, France and England, which were also separated. In a world without surprises, Spain could only meet France in the semifinal and England or Argentina in the final. Argentina, meanwhile, could only meet England in the semifinal and France or Spain in the final.

Qualifiers from Group 1: Mexico, Czech Republic, South Africa Qualifiers from Group 2: Switzerland, Canada, Bosnia Qualifiers from Group 3: Brazil, Morocco, Scotland Qualifiers from Group 4: United States, Turkey, Paraguay Qualifiers from Group 5: Germany, Ecuador, Ivory Coast Qualifiers from Group 6: Netherlands, Japan, Sweden Qualifiers from Group 7: Belgium, Egypt Qualifiers from Group 8: Spain, Uruguay Qualifiers from Group 9: France, Senegal, Norway Qualifiers from Group 10: Argentina, Austria, Algeria Qualifiers from Group 11: Portugal, Colombia Qualifiers from Group 12: England, Croatia

Round of 32: Czech Republic - Canada, Germany - Paraguay, Netherlands - Morocco, Brazil - Japan, France - Sweden, Ecuador - Senegal, Mexico - Scotland, England - Norway, United States - Bosnia, Belgium - South Korea, Colombia - Croatia, Spain - Austria, Switzerland - Algeria, Argentina - Uruguay, Portugal - Ivory Coast, Portugal - Ivory Coast, Turkey - Egypt

Round of 16: Germany - France, Netherlands - Canada, Spain - Croatia, Belgium - United States, Brazil - Senegal, England - Mexico, Argentina - Turkey, Portugal - Switzerland

Quarterfinals: France - Netherlands, Spain - Belgium, England - Brazil, Argentina - Portugal

Semifinals: France - Spain, England - Argentina

Final: Spain - England

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In the next stage, we decided to examine which of the six teams with the highest chances of winning the World Cup has the easiest and the hardest draw. As you can see here, Brazil has the most complicated draw already in the early stages, France could meet Germany as early as the round of 16, and Spain appears to have the easiest path if it finishes first.

Possible routes for the top teams, from the round of 32 to the final

Spain, if it finishes first: Austria (round of 32), Croatia (round of 16), Belgium (quarterfinal), France (semifinal), England/Argentina/Portugal/Brazil (final) Spain, if it finishes second: Argentina, Turkey, Portugal, England, France/Spain France, if it finishes first: third-place team, Germany, Netherlands, Spain, England/Argentina/Portugal/Brazil France, if it finishes second: Ecuador, Brazil, England, Argentina/Portugal, Spain/Germany England, if it finishes first: third-place team, Mexico, Brazil, Argentina/Portugal, Spain/France England, if it finishes second: Colombia, Spain, Belgium, France/Germany/Netherlands, Brazil/Argentina/Portugal Argentina, if it finishes first: Uruguay, Turkey, Portugal, England/Brazil, Spain/France Argentina, if it finishes second: Spain, Croatia/Colombia, Belgium, France/Spain, Portugal/England/Brazil Brazil, if it finishes first: Japan, Senegal/Norway, England, Argentina/Portugal, Spain/France Brazil, if it finishes second: Netherlands, Czech Republic/Canada, France/Germany, Spain, Argentina/England/Portugal Portugal, if it finishes first: third-place team, Switzerland, Argentina, Brazil/England, Spain/France Portugal, if it finishes second: Croatia, Spain, Belgium/United States, Germany/France/Netherlands, England/Argentina/Brazil World Cup 2026 Did you find a language error?