How the Knockout Stage Could Look

With all due respect to the group stage, the real World Cup will begin much later. When will Messi face Ronaldo? Which giants could meet in the round of 16, and what would the classic path to the final look like in a tournament with no surprises, Sport 5 published: 10.06.26, 18:44 Photo: Sport 5

There will be 104 matches in the upcoming World Cup, and the overwhelming majority will take place in the group stage, the longest ever. But what happens in the knockout rounds? We decided to let our imagination run, use calculators, and examine what the biggest matches could be in the truly decisive stages. When could Cristiano Ronaldo meet Leo Messi? Which are the two biggest teams that could meet in the round of 16, and which team has the easiest route to the final in New Jersey?

First, we activated our supercomputer to predict who will go the farthest, serving as a kind of template, in a world of course without surprises. We arranged the 48 teams according to their chances of winning, based on betting agencies and their FIFA ranking, and from there selected the teams advancing from the group stage and in each knockout round all the way to the grand final on July 19.

It should be noted that FIFA made the unprecedented decision before the group-stage draw that Argentina and Spain could not meet until the final, if both finish first in their groups. The same applies to FIFA’s third- and fourth-ranked teams, France and England, who were also separated. In a world without surprises, Spain could meet France only in the semifinals and England or Argentina in the final. Argentina, meanwhile, could meet only England in the semifinals and France or Spain in the final.

Advancing from Group 1: Mexico, Czechia, South Africa Advancing from Group 2: Switzerland, Canada, Bosnia Advancing from Group 3: Brazil, Morocco, Scotland Advancing from Group 4: United States, Turkey, Paraguay Advancing from Group 5: Germany, Ecuador, Ivory Coast Advancing from Group 6: Netherlands, Japan, Sweden Advancing from Group 7: Belgium, Egypt Advancing from Group 8: Spain, Uruguay Advancing from Group 9: France, Senegal, Norway Advancing from Group 10: Argentina, Austria, Algeria Advancing from Group 11: Portugal, Colombia Advancing from Group 12: England, Croatia

Round of 32: Czechia - Canada, Germany - Paraguay, Netherlands - Morocco, Brazil - Japan, France - Sweden, Ecuador - Senegal, Mexico - Scotland, England - Norway, United States - Bosnia, Belgium - South Korea, Colombia - Croatia, Spain - Austria, Switzerland - Algeria, Argentina - Uruguay, Portugal - Ivory Coast, Turkey - Egypt

Round of 16: Germany - France, Netherlands - Canada, Spain - Croatia, Belgium - United States, Brazil - Senegal, England - Mexico, Argentina - Turkey, Portugal - Switzerland

Quarterfinals: France - Netherlands, Spain - Belgium, England - Brazil, Argentina - Portugal

Semifinals: France - Spain, England - Argentina

Final: Spain - England

In the next stage, we decided to examine which of the six teams with the best chances to win the World Cup has the easiest and hardest draw. As you can see here, Brazil has the most complicated draw already in the early stages, France could meet Germany as early as the round of 16, and Spain looks like the team with the most favorable route, if it finishes first.

Possible paths for the giants (from the round of 32 to the final)

Spain, if it finishes first: Austria (round of 32), Croatia (round of 16), Belgium (quarterfinal), France (semifinal), England/Argentina/Portugal/Brazil (final) Spain, if it finishes second: Argentina, Turkey, Portugal, England, France/Spain France, if it finishes first: third-place team, Germany, Netherlands, Spain, England/Argentina/Portugal/Brazil France, if it finishes second: Ecuador, Brazil, England, Argentina/Portugal, Spain/Germany England, if it finishes first: third-place team, Mexico, Brazil, Argentina/Portugal, Spain/France England, if it finishes second: Colombia, Spain, Belgium, France/Germany/Netherlands, Brazil/Argentina/Portugal Argentina, if it finishes first: Uruguay, Turkey, Portugal, England/Brazil, Spain/France Argentina, if it finishes second: Spain, Croatia/Colombia, Belgium, France/Spain, Portugal/England/Brazil Brazil, if it finishes first: Japan, Senegal/Norway, England, Argentina/Portugal, Spain/France Brazil, if it finishes second: Netherlands, Czechia/Canada, France/Germany, Spain, Argentina/England/Portugal Portugal, if it finishes first: third-place team, Switzerland, Argentina, Brazil/England, Spain/France Portugal, if it finishes second: Croatia, Spain, Belgium/United States, Germany/France/Netherlands, England/Argentina/Brazil

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