Netanyahu's 'Miscalculation' Claim Sparks Outrage Among Ex-Officials

A timeline of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's actions on October 7, 2023, released by his office, aims to counter "erroneous publications," according to Ynet. However, the timeline reportedly omits key events, including communications from military secretary Avi Gil and a call with Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte. Former senior security officials expressed shock at Netanyahu's alleged statement that he was not woken to avoid a "miscalculation" regarding Hamas. The term "miscalculation" in this context implies a systemic failure to assess the situation and consequences, not just a simple error.

Sources indicate that Netanyahu had previously ordered restraint from military action against Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran, using the "miscalculation" rationale to avoid escalation. This approach stemmed from a national security concept prioritizing prosperity between conflicts, meaning wars were avoided unless absolutely necessary. A meeting on October 1, 2023, where Shin Bet chief Ronen Bar and IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi recommended strikes on Gaza, including targeting Yahya Sinwar, saw Netanyahu focus instead on normalizing relations with Saudi Arabia and advocating for "soft handling" of Gaza to maintain stability.

Despite unusual signs from Gaza on October 6 and early October 7, including tunnel activity and Hamas claiming drills in response to Islamic Jihad's inquiries, the prevailing assessment was that Hamas was not preparing for a full-scale attack. Bar and Halevi believed that mobilizing troops would be perceived as an offensive move by Hamas, leading to unwanted conflict. This fear of provoking Hamas, despite intelligence suggesting unusual activity, is presented as the core "miscalculation."

Contrary to claims that Netanyahu was deliberately kept uninformed, intelligence from the AMAN (military intelligence) operational center alerted Netanyahu's intelligence aide at 4 a.m. on October 7. The aide, an experienced officer, assessed the information about tunnel openings as not deviating significantly from routine and decided not to wake the Prime Minister, as no immediate action was required. This decision, according to former officials, was reasonable given the intelligence at the time, which did not indicate an imminent attack.

Furthermore, Shin Bet chief Ronen Bar, after assessing the situation around 5:30 a.m., ordered the deployment of the elite "Tequila" unit to the Gaza border and instructed his office to notify Netanyahu's military secretary, Avi Gil. Gil was notified at 6:15 a.m. Officials argue that even if Gil had been woken earlier, it would not have changed the intelligence picture or led to Netanyahu ordering offensive action before the attack began.