Israel Prefers Lebanese Army Over New International Force in Lebanon

Israel is anticipating the end of the UN's mandate in Lebanon on December 31, 2026, while the European Union is reportedly concerned about this development. The EU is considering a significant military and security aid package for Lebanon, aimed at stabilizing the country's security situation. This potential aid, discussed by EU Foreign Minister Kaja Kallas after a meeting with Lebanon's Defense Minister, might include deploying military forces, though it's unclear if this would replace the UN's presence in southern Lebanon. France has previously expressed willingness to send troops to replace UNIFIL, but Kallas clarified the EU aid is not intended as a replacement.

Israel's primary concern is that any foreign military presence in Lebanon could restrict the Israel Defense Forces' (IDF) operational capabilities in the event of a security escalation. Ten EU nations reportedly support the initiative, which aims to improve internal security and border control. Israel is closely monitoring these developments, hoping to avoid a situation where foreign forces limit its actions.

Israel's strategic view, shared by both political and military leadership, is that after UNIFIL's departure, which failed to keep Hezbollah away from the area south of the Litani River, no foreign forces should be allowed in Lebanon again. Instead, Israel desires to see the Lebanese army as its sole counterpart on the northern border. This preference stems from past conflicts, including the current war and the Second Lebanon War, where Israel found itself fighting a non-state actor with army-like capabilities without leverage over Lebanese state infrastructure. Israel aims to change this dynamic, enabling direct state-to-state conflict with broader military options and potentially shorter wars.

Meanwhile, fighting continues along the "blue line" with Hezbollah. Recently, Hezbollah launched explosive drones toward IDF forces on the Ali Taher ridge, an area where some Hezbollah operatives are reportedly still entrenched. Israel responded by targeting additional Hezbollah positions, sparking concerns in Lebanon about potential border shifts. Hezbollah appears to be adhering to established rules of engagement, as evidenced by a recent false alarm of an aircraft intrusion near Israeli kibbutzim, indicating no breach of the current framework.