Israel Worries Turkey May Join UN Force in Lebanon, Limit IDF Actions
Turkey is expressing interest in joining international forces in Lebanon following the potential withdrawal of the UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL). Israel, however, is concerned that Turkey's involvement could restrict the Israel Defense Forces' (IDF) operational capabilities in the region. Recent observations in Israel indicate Turkey's efforts to expand its influence in Lebanon, with Ankara considering deploying soldiers and other personnel to a multinational force intended to succeed UNIFIL in southern Lebanon. Israel, which had sought the termination of UNIFIL's mandate, plans to oppose and attempt to block this Turkish initiative.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan previously stated Turkey's interest in participating in any post-UNIFIL initiative during a meeting with Lebanese President Michel Aoun in late July. Erdogan emphasized that such participation should aim to preserve Lebanon's sovereignty and strengthen its state institutions, also offering aid for the reconstruction of southern Lebanon. Turkey is not waiting for UNIFIL's departure, viewing southern Lebanon as another area to solidify its presence and establish an additional sphere of influence, a development that is causing significant concern in Israel.
The issue is particularly relevant as UNIFIL's mandate is set to expire at the end of 2026. The IDF has long argued that UNIFIL has failed in its mission, with a senior IDF official noting Hezbollah's significant military buildup "under their noses" and accusing UNIFIL personnel of collaborating with Hezbollah by sharing information and ignoring weapons presence. Israel doubts that replacing UNIFIL with Turkish troops would improve the situation, with the IDF Northern Command believing Turkish presence could complicate matters and hinder Israeli actions due to concerns about harming Turkish soldiers.
Israeli security officials believe that wherever Turkish soldiers are present, Erdogan could leverage their presence as a tool to pressure Israel and limit its operations. While other nations are also discussing the future force structure, including France and Italy promoting a multinational format and Germany supporting European forces, Turkey's explicit ambition to expand its Middle East influence sets it apart. Turkey already has a history of involvement in Syria and has developed relations with Lebanon, providing military equipment, supplies, and training, and has previously participated in UNIFIL's naval component.
Lebanese President Aoun seeks to prevent a security vacuum post-UNIFIL, considering options like European and Turkish participation or a NATO-backed model involving Arab and Muslim states. However, from Israel's perspective, Turkey under Erdogan is not a neutral party. Therefore, the prospect of Turkish soldiers in southern Lebanon, an area from which Hezbollah is expected to withdraw military assets, faces Israeli opposition, as does any substantial Turkish involvement in future security forces.
