Israeli Security Minister's Iran Threat Linked to Election Delay Tactics

Israeli Security Minister Yoav Gallant warned on September 2nd of a potential Iranian military attack against Israel during the upcoming Jewish holidays. Gallant based his assessment on the "surprise failures" of the 1973 Yom Kippur War and the October 7th, 2023, attack. Maariv newspaper suggested Israel is preparing for Tehran to potentially use Hezbollah to disrupt holidays and negotiations with Lebanon, driven by economic sanctions.

Meanwhile, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, during a visit to Gaza, declared victory and stated that Gaza no longer poses a threat, with Israel controlling 60% of its area. Israeli narratives suggest U.S. sanctions on Iran could destabilize its regime, leading to a direct military response against Israel. Israeli government sources indicated that such a response would target Iran's infrastructure, potentially causing public unrest.

However, Sima Shine, a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies, stated on Channel 12 that the Israeli public is not interested in a war with Iran. She believes Iran is not interested in attacking Israel, and both Iran and the U.S. want to avoid further escalation involving Israel. Iran fears it, while U.S. intervention would complicate its regional priorities.

The article posits that Netanyahu's government is systematically trying to shift the election agenda away from its weaknesses, such as the October 7th failures, corruption allegations, and the ultra-Orthodox conscription law. The strategy involves leaking information about alleged conspiracies within the military and intelligence services to distract the public from Netanyahu's responsibility for the failures. Netanyahu has also accused rival Benny Gantz of opposing the Rafah operation in secret meetings.

Gallant's statement about a potential Iranian attack is seen as an attempt to redirect public attention to the Iranian threat and create a sense of extreme anxiety. The article suggests the Iranian attack scenario, considered unlikely even by Israeli security assessments, is a "functional scenario" to create a limited security escalation. This escalation could serve as a pretext to postpone elections and keep Netanyahu in power, with the timing during Jewish holidays intended to create an impression of existential threat.

Regarding Lebanon, Israeli assessments predict a "diplomatic pessimism" for trilateral negotiations with the U.S. ahead of Israeli elections. The U.S. stance is described as neither a green light nor a red light, effectively freezing the current situation. This freeze allows Israel to control the field situation and the level of tension on the Lebanese front, which could be exploited if Netanyahu insists on delaying elections.

In the West Bank, the Israeli government is perceived as pushing Palestinians towards direct confrontation through attacks by "government militias," potentially leading to changes in the Palestinian population structure. In Gaza, the situation is seen as worsening, with renewed talk of displacement, an objective that failed even when international conditions were favorable. Gallant noted that displacement plans are ready but await U.S. approval, which is considered unlikely due to U.S. interests.

In conclusion, the article argues that the fear-mongering rhetoric from Netanyahu and Gallant regarding an Iranian attack is designed to prepare the public for the possibility of canceling elections and ensuring Netanyahu's continued rule. This rhetoric targets Jews by invoking religious and existential sentiments. The Israeli public is reportedly against renewed war due to exhaustion from previous conflicts. Netanyahu is seen as prioritizing perceived existential threats for political and electoral gain, recognizing election periods as opportune for escalating rhetoric. The public is largely indifferent to Gaza's fate. The article suggests a likely scenario involves further Israeli escalation in the West Bank, or even against Arab citizens of Israel, for ideological and electoral reasons to maintain the right-wing bloc and secure Netanyahu's victory.