Expert Downplays Nuclear Attack Risk, Details Limited Casualties

A retired Israeli colonel and nuclear expert has assessed the likelihood of Iran using a nuclear weapon against Israel as extremely low, estimating it at less than one percent. Dr. Uzi Nissim Levi, chairman of the World Nuclear Forum and a lecturer at Afeka College, told Israel Hayom that while Iran's nuclear infrastructure has been significantly damaged by two prior operations, its capability to develop an atomic weapon has not been eliminated. He stressed that the ultimate decision rests with Iran's supreme leader.

Despite the low probability, Levi stated that Israel cannot afford to ignore the threat, emphasizing that the mere possibility of a nuclear strike can alter the regional strategic balance. He also presented a scenario where, even in the event of a nuclear attack, approximately 98% of Israel's population would not be directly harmed. This is attributed to the limited radius of a nuclear blast's most destructive effects and the resilience of modern reinforced concrete buildings, which offer greater protection than structures from the World War II era.

Levi further explained that individuals within three to four kilometers of the blast's epicenter could likely survive severe consequences. Additionally, he estimated a 90% chance of early warning detection for a launch, allowing the population time to seek shelter. Israel and its allies also possess capabilities to intercept the delivery system, and Levi noted that destroying a nuclear weapon at high altitude might not necessarily result in a nuclear explosion or widespread radioactive contamination, as specific conditions are required for full detonation.