Israel Prepares Response to Potential UK Sanctions on Settlements

Israel is preparing a range of possible responses to potential sanctions announced by the British Foreign Ministry, which could include restrictions or a complete ban on imports from Israeli settlements. A senior Israeli diplomatic official stated that the final Israeli response would depend on the full details of the British move, emphasizing that any harm to Israel would directly impact bilateral relations.

These potential British intentions have been known to Israel for some time, predating recent disputes over settlement plans and changes in the British Foreign Ministry. Similar measures have previously been adopted or advanced by countries like Ireland, Spain, and the Netherlands. Israel has previously retaliated against countries taking hostile stances, citing Spain and the Netherlands being excluded from international mechanisms concerning the Gaza Strip as a way to demonstrate that unilateral actions against Israel lead to a loss of regional influence.

The British move is reportedly influenced by internal UK politics, including the upcoming Labour Party conference, pressure from the Green Party, and increased public discussion about recognizing a Palestinian state. Israel does not see a need to publicly pressure the US administration, believing that American positions are communicated directly through quiet channels between Washington and London.

Israel is adopting a calculated restraint, similar to its measured response to past French actions, with the intensity of its reaction to be determined by the overall situation and the need to avoid broad strategic damage. This tension with the UK is part of a broader diplomatic effort by Israel over the past 18 months to curb hostile initiatives within the European Union, including attempts to freeze the Association Agreement and trade chapters.

To counter strained relations with Western European nations, Israeli diplomacy is deepening its engagement with Central and Eastern European countries, aiming to solidify alliances, particularly with Montenegro, a leading EU candidate, to ensure a supportive bloc in the future. Israel is awaiting the official announcement from London, with a primary concern that a British trade measure could set a precedent, encouraging other European capitals to join a boycott.