Ex-IDF Intel Chief Urges Direct Talks to Defuse Turkey Tensions
Former head of Israeli military intelligence, Tamir Hayman, has warned against Israel framing Turkey as a threat in the same way it views Iran, advocating instead for political and diplomatic engagement. Hayman, now director of the Institute for National Security Studies at Tel Aviv University, argued in an analysis published Wednesday that Israel's post-October 7 security doctrine, which prioritizes military strength over conflict management, has led the government to perceive Turkey as a threat.
While acknowledging Turkey's significant military capabilities, Middle Eastern presence, and President Erdoğan's harsh rhetoric, Hayman cautioned that labeling Turkey an enemy would be a "dangerous strategic mistake." He explained that such a designation could create a self-fulfilling prophecy, where Israel prepares for conflict, Turkey perceives this as an existential threat, leading to reciprocal military readiness and escalating tensions unnecessarily.
Hayman emphasized that Turkey, a NATO member with diplomatic ties to Israel and significant Western influence, is fundamentally different from the Iranian-led Shiite axis. He stated that comparing the two underestimates the Iranian threat and inadvertently benefits Iran.
Instead of military confrontation, Hayman proposed a long-term strategy focused on intelligence gathering, naval power, and offensive capabilities to prepare for potential future Turkish threats. He also advised against including Turkey in the Israeli military's multi-year planning as a threat, citing the potential negative impact on security budgets and training routines.
Hayman suggested that Israel should manage the Turkish challenge intelligently by strengthening diplomatic ties with Greece and Cyprus, and enhancing cooperation with India, which is concerned about the Pakistan-India alliance. He specifically called for direct talks between Israeli and Turkish representatives to de-escalate tensions and resume trade relations, noting that this possibility remains open despite a Turkish boycott.
Regarding Syria, Hayman recommended that Israel avoid expanding its red lines, which could limit its flexibility. He cautioned against replicating the "war between wars" doctrine against Iran's presence in Syria to address Turkey's positioning, and warned against using terms like "Sunni axis" or "ring of fire." He concluded that countering Turkey requires political effort supported by intelligence, not military conflict.
