Qatar Deepens Influence in Lebanon, Building Ties with Army and South

Qatar is significantly expanding its influence across Lebanon, particularly in the south, by investing heavily in its military, economy, and political landscape. This initiative aims to create Lebanese dependency on Qatari capabilities and positions Qatar as a key mediator within Lebanon and in regional affairs, potentially paving the way for future Turkish political involvement.

In the Lebanese military, Qatar's engagement is substantial. It has renewed a $60 million grant for soldier salaries and pledged continued support for four more years, alongside funding for military vehicle fuel. Qatar is also supplying vehicles, having recently delivered 40 out of a promised 162. This raises strategic questions about the Lebanese army's future allegiances.

In southern Lebanon, Qatar provides monthly aid to over 40,000 Shiite families and has allocated approximately $480 million to the Lebanese government for village support. This follows similar Qatari aid after the 2000 and 2006 Lebanon wars. Such assistance could allow Hezbollah to redirect its resources to strengthening its forces.

Beyond the south, Qatar is involved in upgrading Beirut's airport, including communication and navigation systems, and is investing hundreds of millions of dollars in the energy sector to combat the ongoing electricity crisis. The country also assists Syrian refugees in Lebanon with repatriation, supports new bus routes, and offers student scholarships.

While Israel and the U.S. aim to bolster the Lebanese state and army as alternatives to Hezbollah, Qatar's deep integration, especially within the military and southern regions, presents a complex dynamic. Experts suggest Qatar's actions may not replace Hezbollah but could alleviate its burdens, potentially creating outcomes not aligned with Israeli interests, especially when combined with Turkish political initiatives.