Right-Wing Parties Must Build Stable Base to Ensure Election Success

Analysis of recent Israeli election cycles reveals a recurring pitfall for right-wing parties: overreliance on polls and a failure to cultivate a stable, core voter base. Parties like Otzma LeYisrael, Yachad, HaYamin HeChadash, and Zehut have all fallen short of the electoral threshold despite favorable polling, losing tens of thousands of votes.

The core lesson, according to the analysis, is that a party must first secure a dedicated, consistent demographic, a "base", before attempting to appeal to broader audiences. Parties that try to attract diverse groups without a strong foundation often fail to cross the 3.25% electoral threshold.

Examples cited include Otzma LeYisrael in the 2013 election, which received approximately 66,775 votes against an 75,854 threshold, and Yachad in 2015, which garnered 125,158 votes but fell short of the 136,854 threshold. Similarly, HaYamin HeChadash and Zehut narrowly missed the threshold in 2019, as did Otzma Yehudit in a later 2019 election.

In contrast, parties like Shas and United Torah Judaism maintain strong, loyal bases that provide a consistent vote. The Likud also benefits from a large, traditional national-religious base. Success stories like the Jewish Home in 2013 are attributed to building upon such a base, even if some voters later returned to their "home" parties.

The article warns that in the crucial period between poll releases and election day, voters often consolidate around their primary party affiliations. Parties lacking a solid base risk seeing their temporary supporters return home, leaving them short of the necessary votes. The author likens parties with a strong base to those with "real value" on the stock market, while those relying solely on polls are like "bubbles" that can burst.