Israeli Parties Vie for Undecided Voters' Second and Third Choices

A new analysis of Israeli voter behavior reveals which parties have the largest "growth potential" among those not currently ranking them first, but considering them as a second or third option. The study, part of the "Israel Barometer" project conducted by the Maagar Mochot Institute for Channel 7, identifies parties with significant external voter bases.

Yisrael Beiteinu leads with approximately 20% of non-supporters ranking it as a second or third choice. Other parties with notable external support include those led by Avigdor Lieberman, Naftali Bennett, and Otzma Yehudit, each with 11% to 17% of non-supporters considering them. In contrast, the Likud party shows a lower figure, with about 7.5% of non-supporters ranking it second or third.

The Religious Zionism party exhibits a stark division in its potential. Among religious-Torah observant individuals who do not currently rank it first, nearly 39% consider it a second or third option, indicating a broad political affinity within this sector. However, among the non-religious-Torah observant public, only about 6% view it as a viable alternative, suggesting a significant barrier to growth outside its core base.

This distinction between core support and potential growth is crucial for understanding election dynamics. Parties with large external bases, like Yisrael Beiteinu and Bennett's party, face the dual challenge of retaining current supporters while attracting new ones. Conversely, parties with more stable, core support but less external potential, such as the Likud and United Torah Judaism, must focus on expanding their reach to new voter segments.

The analysis emphasizes that these figures do not predict actual vote transfers but highlight the pool of voters "on the doorstep" of each party. The volatility of these "soft voters" can significantly impact election outcomes, explaining some of the discrepancies observed between different opinion polls. The study suggests that future electoral success will depend not only on current poll standings but also on a party's ability to convert these potential supporters into actual votes.