Forecaster Explains Why Promised Rains Missed Central Israel

Heavy rains and severe weather systems were forecast for central Israel at the end of August, but the expected downpours did not materialize as predicted. Nahum Malik, chief meteorologist at Meteo-Tech, explained that the weather system tracked further north than anticipated, impacting Lebanon and Cyprus more significantly.

Malik stated that signs of the system weakening began appearing on Thursday. He noted that the core of the autumnal system passed over Lebanon, resulting in its main effects being felt outside of Israel and in the northern part of the country. While northern Israel did experience strong rains, they did not extend to the central regions.

Looking ahead, Malik indicated that the main system had passed, though cooler air would persist, potentially causing light drizzles or rain in the north and center overnight and into the morning, but nothing substantial. He acknowledged that the terminology used to communicate the forecast contributed to public expectation, with some sources describing the potential storm more dramatically, leading to what he called a "snowball effect."

Malik emphasized the challenge of balancing timely warnings for local authorities and the public with the need to avoid causing panic. He suggested finding a middle ground by issuing warnings closer to the actual event. He also reflected on the inherent uncertainty in weather forecasting, stating that 100% accuracy is unattainable, and that as a forecast approaches the event time, its accuracy increases. By Thursday afternoon, signs indicated the system was weakening and tracking further north, a possibility that was communicated to relevant authorities.