Netanyahu Faces Right-Wing Fragmentation Threat Ahead of Elections

Following setbacks with Nir Barkat and Yehuda Glick, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu now confronts a complex challenge within the right-wing bloc, including both established and new ultra-Orthodox and religious-nationalist parties. This fragmentation risks vote losses that could cost him the upcoming elections.

Despite apparent ideological alignment among key right-wing figures such as Bezalel Smotrich, Ofer Winter, and Moshe Feiglin, who all support judicial reform, a softer approach to ultra-Orthodox draft exemptions, and dialogue with Haredi leadership, voters are shifting between these parties. Feiglin, known for his anti-establishment stance, attracts voters disillusioned with the current government, criticizing Smotrich for lacking vision and leadership, which siphons some votes away from Smotrich.

Netanyahu’s options to manage this internal competition are limited and politically risky. He could force a merger between Smotrich and Winter’s factions and allocate reserved spots on the Likud list for their representatives, or absorb Smotrich’s party into Likud while sidelining Winter. Both strategies carry significant political hazards.

The prime minister’s efforts to secure reserved list spots are not aimed at recruiting high-profile politicians capable of closing the gap with the opposition, but rather to prevent a third of his faction from splitting off. However, if he grants reserved spots to Smotrich or Winter’s representatives, the faction could shrink post-election as these members depart, increasing the risk of a rebellion within Likud.

With the looming threat of electoral defeat, every small factional split becomes more dangerous, underscoring the precarious position Netanyahu faces in maintaining right-wing unity ahead of the vote.