Stock Market Opens on Iran Deal Optimism as Oil Slumps and CPI Looms

Tel Aviv trading is set to open higher on Monday after U.S. President Donald Trump announced that a deal with Iran has been completed. Trump wrote on Truth Social that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen without tolls and that the United States will end its naval blockade of Iran. He said the agreement will be signed on Friday, while also warning in a New York Times interview that if nuclear talks fail, Washington may strike Tehran again.

Global markets are welcoming the announcement. U.S. futures are up as much as 1.5%, Asian markets are jumping, with Japan and South Korea rising about 5%, oil is down roughly 5%, the dollar is weaker, and gold is climbing about 3%. The move is expected to ease the geopolitical risk premium in oil prices. In Israel, the shekel is strengthening about 0.5% to 2.9 per dollar, and dual-listed stocks are supporting the local market, especially chip names such as Camtek, Nice, Nova and Tower Semiconductor, while Elbit Systems, Teva and Gilat are weighing in the other direction.

Wall Street ended Friday on mixed but positive notes, with the Dow Jones up 0.7%, the S&P 500 up 0.3% and the Nasdaq up 0.2%, helped again by chip stocks. Intel surged after Bank of America upgraded it to Buy from Underperform and lifted its target to $135 from $96. U.S. futures are now rising again, with the Dow up about 0.7%, the S&P 500 about 0.9% and the Nasdaq about 1.7%.

Bond markets also reacted to lower oil prices and softer inflation expectations. Israeli government bond yields fell, with the 10-year yield down to 3.6% and the 30-year to 4.22%. Goldman Sachs says the longer-term oil picture may be shifting from war risk toward oversupply and weaker demand, cutting its 2027 Brent average forecast to $80 a barrel from a higher estimate, while keeping its fourth-quarter 2026 Brent forecast at $90.

Locally, attention now turns to Israel’s May consumer price index, due this afternoon. Economists at Leader Capital Markets, Phoenix and Discount Bank all expect a 0.2% decline, citing cheaper flights, stable housing costs and limited food-price pressure. GDP data will follow tomorrow. Globally, markets are watching Japan’s rate decision on Tuesday, the first policy move under new Fed chair Kevin Warsh on Wednesday, and Trump’s trip to France for the three-day G7 summit, where Iran, Russia-Ukraine, AI, online safety and organized crime will be on the agenda.