Finance Founder: Tech Risk Matters More Than Geopolitics, and Israel’s Shekel Will Keep Strengthening

In a recorded interview for Globes’ “The Path to Financial Growth” series, alongside Profit, Assaf Banai, founder and CEO of Profit, argued that investors are misreading the biggest risks in 2026. He said the more dangerous threat to Israeli markets is volatility in technology stocks, not geopolitics, and he pointed to lower inflation and a stronger shekel as the key forces shaping the rest of the year. Banai, whose firm manages more than 100 billion shekels and recently received new investment from Leumi Partners and Shastovich at a valuation of about 670 million shekels, said Profit is Israel’s largest financial-planning group.

Banai said the biggest surprise of the first half of 2026 was the war-driven closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the resulting jump in oil prices. He said the move was a market shock, but less severe for inflation than it could have been. Energy prices pushed U.S. annual inflation to 4.2%, a three-year high, and forced markets to price in a growing chance of another U.S. rate hike, after beginning the year with hopes for cuts. By contrast, he said, Israel is moving the other way, with the Bank of Israel already cutting rates and intervening in foreign-exchange trading, and markets now pricing in two more cuts.

Banai said the biggest mistake investors make is trying to time the dollar. He argued that Israelis should think in shekels, not wait for the exchange rate before investing, and warned that delay can become a trap. He also criticized the popular rush into the S&P 500, saying, “The trend is not your friend,” and adding that if a taxi driver or barber asks about the index, “it’s time to run.” His broader advice was to manage money by overcoming ego, fear, and greed. He said local market valuations are high, with U.S. earnings multiples around 31, and reminded listeners that markets can also fall.

On Israel’s outlook, Banai said the country’s risk premium, as measured by CDS prices, has returned to its pre-October 2023 war level, suggesting the market is no longer mainly pricing geopolitical danger. In his view, the real pressure comes from Israel’s tech exposure, not Hamas or Hezbollah. He noted the record-setting SpaceX IPO by Elon Musk, and said planned large offerings from OpenAI and Anthropic could steer global capital even more toward technology. Still, he expects the general portfolio to gain another 2% to 3% by year-end, while the model used by his firm points to 7% overall and his own estimate is slightly higher. He also said the shekel is fundamentally likely to keep strengthening and that inflation should remain very low, with Profit’s forecast at 1.5% versus the market consensus of up to 2% for year-end.

Banai also addressed the collapse of the U.S. company Symed, which issued bonds in Israel and then defaulted, wiping out 440 million shekels in bonds and hurting funds at Mor, Pinna, and Yelin Lapidot. He said the company’s owners took 34 million dollars for private businesses and that the warning signs were obvious. He called the damage small relative to the pension system but warned the pattern will likely repeat, because foreign issuers are drawn to Israel by higher yields. He closed by urging restraint and humility, saying not to become euphoric in victory or depressed in defeat.