Trump Pushes Israel to Advance Middle East Deals Despite Political Risks
Former U.S. President Donald Trump is determined not to let Israeli politics stall his regional initiatives, which include advancing a Gaza plan, a security agreement between Israel and Syria, resolving the Iran crisis, and most notably, pursuing a historic Israel-Saudi Arabia agreement. The White House is concerned that upcoming Israeli elections could freeze these diplomatic efforts, recalling the 2019 political deadlock in Israel that led to three elections and a lost year for regional diplomacy. Trump’s team views Israeli political instability as a key obstacle to progress, and Washington is unwilling to let this happen again.
The timing of these moves is politically sensitive. For example, a planned Israeli withdrawal and transfer of territory to the Lebanese army in southern Lebanon could be seen in Washington as diplomatic progress but might be criticized in Israel as premature. Israel’s insistence on full disarmament of Hezbollah before withdrawal conflicts with Hezbollah’s demand that Israel leave first, a stance supported by Iran, which sees Hezbollah as a critical deterrent against Israel.
Trump also holds political leverage over Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, having so far withheld public election support despite their personal rapport. In recent weeks, Trump has avoided endorsing Netanyahu explicitly, a contrast to his 2019 recognition of Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights, which he credited with helping Netanyahu. American officials describe Trump as increasingly frustrated with Netanyahu’s decisions, with Trump privately calling him "his own worst enemy."
The U.S. administration’s backing for some of Trump’s policies has waned due to the Iran deal and restrictions on Israeli actions in Iran, Gaza, Syria, and Lebanon. Trump is cautious about overt election interference to avoid alienating his Israeli supporters. While there is no indication Trump will become an adversary of Israel or Netanyahu, the risk is growing that Washington will blame Jerusalem for delays in the deals Trump seeks.
As Israeli elections approach, Netanyahu’s room to maneuver against U.S. demands narrows. The first practical test will be the pilot project in southern Lebanon, where the Lebanese army’s entry and dismantling of Hezbollah infrastructure could validate progress for both leaders. Failure or refusal by Israel to withdraw could prompt Washington to question not only Lebanon’s ability to disarm Hezbollah but also Israel’s willingness to fulfill its part in Trump’s envisioned regional agreements.
