Israel Outsources National Security Policy to Trump’s Middle East Vision

Former Israeli Military Intelligence Chief Tamir Hayman analyzes how Israel has effectively outsourced its national security policy to the United States under President Donald Trump’s Middle East strategy. This shift is exemplified by the implementation of Trump’s 20-Point Plan in Gaza, which Israel initially developed but only saw enforced externally by the U.S. The plan calls for replacing Hamas’s control with a technocratic government, supported by an international peace board and a multinational security force, aiming to disarm Hamas and revive the Abraham Accords. Israel agreed to a ceasefire and gradual withdrawal from Gaza’s "green zone" contingent on verified disarmament, despite Hamas’s failure to comply fully.

A subsequent 15-Point Agreement, largely excluding Israel from direct involvement, was brokered between the international peace board and Hamas to facilitate the technocratic government’s entry. However, concerns remain about the roles of Qatar and Turkey in monitoring disarmament, the unclear authority of the Palestinian security forces, and the potential infiltration of Hamas operatives into the new security apparatus. Israel maintains control over the "green zone" as leverage for credible disarmament and continues military operations to weaken Hamas leadership.

Hayman warns that Israel no longer independently controls its foreign policy, with Washington dictating key security decisions. He urges Israel to manage this "outsourcing" carefully by cooperating closely with the U.S. while safeguarding Israeli interests. He recommends transparent public communication about the policy, accelerating implementation with verification mechanisms, balancing political rhetoric to preserve U.S. relations, and addressing the risk of eroding Israel-U.S. ties. Gaza serves as a test case for future U.S.-led initiatives in Lebanon and Syria, highlighting the complexities and risks of relying on external actors to shape Israel’s security environment.