Bennett and Eisenkot near polling parity as opposition merger debate shifts the race

A few weeks ago, Naftali Bennett was polling at nearly twice the level of Gadi Eisenkot, about 20 Knesset seats to 12. Since then, Eisenkot has closed the gap to the point of equality, and the article says a reversal could happen in the polls as soon as next week.

The story traces that shift to talks over a possible broader opposition alliance. Eisenkot’s people proposed putting in writing several shared principles, including agreement on early priorities such as a draft law and the establishment of a state commission of inquiry. They also wanted a rule that the largest party in the bloc would receive the recommendation to form a government from the president. The proposal was aimed mainly at preventing Avigdor Liberman from using a small seat count to claim the premiership, as Bennett did in the “change government,” but Bennett’s camp rejected it outright.

For months, Bennett’s team has resisted any arrangement that does not leave Bennett as the sole candidate for prime minister. Bennett and Yair Lapid argued that a large joint list would create a polling surge and public momentum, based on emotion and the sense that “it is happening.” Eisenkot’s side, by contrast, focused on polls and seat arithmetic, asking how to maximize votes from the other side of the political map and reach more than 61 seats.

Their internal modeling reportedly found that a Bennett-Lapid merger alone would rank very poorly, 11th out of 12 possible opposition-combination scenarios, with the worst being a full bloc that also included Yair Golan. Meanwhile, Bennett and Lapid have been losing about one seat per week to Eisenkot. Bennett’s slide and Lapid’s proximity to the red line eventually pushed them to announce their own merger, but the article says the move confused right-wing Bennett voters and left-wing Lapid voters alike, helping Eisenkot’s support keep rising.