Non-Gulf Oil Exporters Are Profiting from the Global Oil Shock

A closure of the Strait of Hormuz has shaken global energy markets and pushed oil prices to new highs, but the biggest gains are going to exporters outside the Persian Gulf. While importers in Asia and Europe absorb the cost, countries such as the United States, Norway, Russia, Brazil, and others have captured market share and billions in extra revenue. Analysts say they are racing to make the most of the moment before the market shifts again.

The United States has been the largest beneficiary. Its expanding production and export capacity let it partly fill the gap left in the market, and it became a net crude oil exporter for the first time since World War II. Between March and April 2026, U.S. crude export revenue was nearly $11 billion higher than in the same months of 2025, and the increase is roughly double when refined products are included. But higher oil prices also pushed U.S. gasoline to about $4.1 per gallon, down from $4.5 in May but still far above $3.1 a year ago. Economist Orr Azran of Bank Leumi said the gains also raise inflation and can delay, or even reverse, interest-rate cuts. Former intelligence official Yehoshua Krasna said President Trump rejected calls to limit exports despite fears of a gasoline shortage.

Norway has also seen a sharp windfall. The country, with fewer than 6 million people and the world’s largest sovereign wealth fund, worth more than $2 trillion, exported $6.4 billion of crude in March and April 2025, and $12.4 billion in the same period of 2026. It is also Europe’s biggest gas supplier, ahead of the United States, and has benefited from Europe’s efforts to replace Russian and Gulf energy. Russia, by contrast, exported fewer barrels than a year earlier because Ukrainian attacks on production, refining, and export infrastructure intensified, but higher prices still lifted its March-April 2026 crude export revenue by $7 billion. The attacks have become a form of “kinetic sanctions,” and Russia’s budget deficit keeps widening despite the price surge.

In South America, Brazil and Guyana are providing much of the new supply. Brazil exported $7.1 billion in crude in March-April 2025 and $10 billion in the same period of 2026, but chose to restrain exports by imposing a 12% tax on crude exports and a 50% tax on diesel to shield domestic consumers. Guyana, a much newer producer, began production in 2019 and exports in 2020; its per-capita GDP quadrupled from 2020 to 2024. Venezuela also increased exports after reaching agreements with U.S. companies in January 2026, though Azran said corruption and macroeconomic weakness mean few will benefit. Both he and Krasna warned that the long-term energy trend is toward electricity, electric vehicles, and renewables, so today’s oil windfall may not last.