Israel’s Mossad Planned Regime Change in Iran During Operation 'Roaring Lion'
New revelations about Israel’s covert Operation "Roaring Lion" disclose that its primary goal was to deeply damage or remove threats posed by Iran to Israel by creating military conditions for regime change in Tehran. Although the exact wording varied, the bottom line was to "create conditions for regime change." This phrasing reflected compromises, including with the IDF, which from the start stated it could not achieve regime change alone.
Before the operation’s launch, Mossad presented the cabinet with a projection that regime change in Iran would occur within one to three years. However, ministers expected a rapid, sweeping change involving the killing of Iran’s current leader, a Kurdish invasion, and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad acting as an Israeli proxy amid street protests. Many insiders believe the operation might have succeeded if the United States had not altered its stance on key elements. The plan suffered from systemic failure, as the political leadership, IDF, and Mossad never fully agreed on the mission’s nature, centrality, feasibility, or appropriate means.
Military Intelligence (AMAN) warned in a written report that failure to change the regime could increase the risk of Iran acquiring nuclear weapons, a risk that must be contained. Some Iran experts now believe Mojtaba Khamenei is seriously considering a nuclear breakout. Mossad, meanwhile, provided strong analytical evidence of Ahmadinejad’s influence and standing within Iranian society, marking him as a credible internal alternative. Israeli intelligence, however, viewed Mossad’s reliance on Kurdish forces as a "complete, wild delusion." Mossad believed Iran was their domain and that Kurds would only distract the regime while the Iranian public overthrew it.
The Kurds were given strict rules of engagement, dubbed the "Ten Commandments," forbidding murder, looting, rape, and war crimes, with warnings that Israeli Air Force support would be withdrawn if violated. The cabinet was not warned that Turkish President Erdogan could foil the plan, nor did they fully discuss the consequences of a new war with Iran on Israel’s standing in the United States. Additional significant Mossad components of the plan remain undisclosed, which may give a misleading impression of the operation’s scope. The full report appeared in Yedioth Ahronoth’s weekend supplement and on Yedioth+.
