Israel’s Non-Zionist Population Projected Below Majority Until 2060s, Experts Say

Yoaz Hendel, chairman of the Reservists Party, recently warned at a press conference that if dramatic action is not taken, Israel could face a non-Zionist majority by 2048, comprising mainly ultra-Orthodox (Haredi) and Arab populations. Hendel described the situation as severe, emphasizing risks of governance breakdown in Arab sectors and autonomous ultra-Orthodox communities, and called for a unified Zionist government to prevent this outcome.

However, demographic data and forecasts from the Israeli Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS) and the Institute for Haredi Strategy and Policy suggest a different timeline. As of now, Arabs and Haredim together make up about 35% of Israel’s population (21% Arabs, 14% Haredim). The CBS’s medium projection estimates their combined share will reach 44% by 2048, below a majority, and only surpass 50% around 2062.

More recent and detailed forecasts by Dr. Eitan Regev of the Institute for Haredi Strategy and Policy, which incorporate administrative data and factors like community switching, present four scenarios based on varying Haredi birth rates. Even under the highest birth rate assumption (6.2 children per woman), Arabs and Haredim would constitute about 40% of the population in 2048, rising to 45% by 2065. Lower birth rate scenarios predict even smaller shares, around 38-39% in 2048.

Regev explains discrepancies between forecasts by noting that CBS projections do not account for Haredi community departures and arrivals, and that recent data show a decline in Haredi birth rates. He also cautions that demographic projections are inherently uncertain and can be influenced by unforeseen developments such as migration.

In response to Hendel’s remarks, his office reiterated concerns about Israel’s future demographic balance, highlighting the need to dismantle autonomous Arab and ultra-Orthodox enclaves and promote equal opportunities and shared Zionist identity. The debate underscores the complexity of Israel’s demographic trends and the political implications tied to population growth among different communities.