Tamar Gas Partners Advance $20 Billion Export Deal to Egypt

The Tamar gas field partnership is moving toward a major natural gas export deal with Egypt, potentially one of the largest in Israel's energy sector. Isramco and Mubadala Energy, which together hold about 40% of Tamar's rights, have signed a non-binding memorandum of understanding with a foreign corporation to export natural gas to Egypt. If all partners join and the agreement becomes binding, the export volume could reach approximately 80 billion cubic meters (BCM), with total revenues estimated at around $20 billion over the contract period.

Gas supply is expected to begin in 2031 and continue until the end of 2043, contingent on the extension of Tamar's ownership period. The gas price will be determined by a formula linked to Brent crude oil prices, including a price floor. Isramco's share of the full deal's revenues is estimated at about $5.75 billion. However, the current memorandum is non-binding, and the deal requires a binding contract, export permits from the Ministry of Energy, and additional regulatory approvals.

Other Tamar partners, including Chevron, Tamar Petroleum, Dor Gas, and businessman Aharon Frenkel, have not yet confirmed their participation. Their absence would significantly reduce the deal's scale, limiting it to Isramco and Mubadala's shares. This initiative complements last summer's Leviathan partners' agreement with Blue Ocean Energy for exporting 130 BCM of gas to Egypt by 2040, valued at approximately $35 billion, previously considered Israel's largest export deal.

Recent completion of offshore pipeline infrastructure and Tamar's production expansion reflect strengthening Israeli-Egyptian energy cooperation. Meanwhile, Israel's natural gas sector awaits the final recommendations of a committee led by Energy Ministry Director-General Yossi Dayan, established over two years ago to update gas export policies. Dayan recently told the Knesset Economics Committee that the committee's work is complete and recommendations will be published soon, but they remain unpublished. Lobby group Lobby 99 has urged Energy Minister Eli Cohen and Dayan to release the findings promptly before the Knesset dissolves ahead of the October 27 general elections.

Despite the delay, Israel's natural gas market continues operating under outdated policies, even as regional security and geopolitical conditions have evolved significantly.