Trump waits for Iran’s answer and grows increasingly frustrated: “They dragged us along”

President Trump has been waiting for an Iranian response to his proposal for two weeks, and behind the scenes he has grown increasingly frustrated by the delay, two American officials said. The strike carried out in response to the downing of a helicopter was intended to restore leverage without closing off the path to negotiations.

Why it matters

According to an American official, the strikes carried out last night were meant, on the one hand, to restore U.S. leverage in negotiations with Iran, but on the other hand to be calibrated and targeted so that no one would be killed and the path to an agreement would not be closed. Qatari mediators held talks in Tehran today in an effort to get the negotiations back on track and narrow the remaining gaps between the United States and Iran.

While the Qatari and Iranian mediators met today, Trump issued new threats to strike Iran within hours. “We’re going to hit them again hard today, in case you missed it because you don’t have the TV on, and we’ll see what happens with the deal,” Trump said in a conversation with reporters in the Oval Office. Trump said Iran “treated us like fools” and “led us around by the nose” during the talks. “They just kept leading us on, over and over and over,” he said. “We’re going to hit them again hard today.”

Crash of the helicopter and Trump’s decision to strike

When Trump decided to order a military response, the United States still did not know for certain whether Iran had intentionally brought down the helicopter. Two White House officials said that even if the helicopter crash had been the result of an unintentional collision with an Iranian drone, the United States still had to respond to make clear that Iranian activity in the Strait of Hormuz was unacceptable.

“If we hadn’t responded, it would have made us look weak and also hurt our position in negotiations with Iran,” one of the American officials said. However, the two officials made clear that the American strikes were “proportionate and targeted,” and that they were aimed at Iranian radar and drone control systems, while deliberately avoiding the killing of Iranian soldiers.

A few hours before yesterday’s American strikes, the White House once again tried to get clear answers from the Iranians about Trump’s latest proposal, but received none. An American official said the White House made clear to the Iranians that “time is running out.” The Iranians replied that they still did not have an answer and warned that if the United States attacked, Iran would respond.

At around 5:00 p.m. Eastern time yesterday, as the American fighter jets were on their way to carry out the strike, the White House sent messages to the Iranians saying the targets would be military facilities only. “We told the Iranians that if the pilots had been killed, we would be in a completely different place today,” an American official said.

The Iranians responded to the American strikes with their own measured and limited response and did not escalate further. The Iranians did not give the White House any answers.

The Iranians made Trump wait

Trump could have reached an initial agreement with Iran at the end of last month had he approved the framework agreed upon by his representatives in talks with the Iranians. Instead, after a Situation Room meeting with his national security team on May 29, he sent the Iranians a request for revisions to two clauses in the memorandum of understanding (MOU) to end the war.

An American official said Trump was prepared to make a significant concession and agree for the first time that Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium would be downblended inside Iran, under the supervision of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), rather than physically removed abroad. In return, Trump asked that the downblending process be completed within 60 days and that Iran commit in the memorandum of understanding not to charge fees or interfere with vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told mediators and the United States that he would need 4 to 5 days to take the request through Iran’s decision-making mechanism and return with an answer, according to a regional source involved in the mediation and an American official.

During nearly two weeks of diplomatic waiting, Trump grew increasingly frustrated by the negative coverage in the liberal media about his promises that a deal was close, and by criticism in conservative media that he was not being tough enough on the Iranians. An American official said Trump’s frustration increased when the Iranians said in private and in public that they expected to receive some of their frozen assets upfront, before fulfilling their commitments under the agreement. According to the official, Trump was not prepared for that. He noted, however, that the Iranians could receive the frozen funds if they took the steps the president is demanding of them regarding the nuclear program.

The escalation between Israel and Iran complicates the situation

Members of the American negotiating team and regional mediators warned the Iranians several times over the past 12 days that they needed to come back with an answer before various actors in the region who wanted to sabotage the negotiations took steps that would undermine the situation, or before a tactical incident on the ground led to escalation.

Last Saturday, Araghchi told regional mediators that he had passed the Iranian response to Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei for approval, and expressed hope that he could deliver it to the Trump administration on Sunday. But the following day the situation escalated: Israel struck in Beirut, Iran launched a missile attack against Israel, and Israel responded with strikes in Tehran.

“We told the Iranians they made a big mistake when they launched the attack against Israel, because they gave Bibi a golden opportunity to sabotage the negotiations,” said a regional source involved in the talks. Two regional sources said the United States and Iran were close to an agreement before the escalation between Israel and Iran, but afterward the Iranians did not want to appear as if they were surrendering to the Israeli strikes. An Israeli official argued that the Iranian conduct reflected the fact that Khamenei and his senior commanders felt they had the upper hand after the latest round of fighting with Israel. The helicopter incident further complicated the situation.

Behind the scenes

Over the past two days, Iranian and American officials have held separate talks with Qatari mediators in Doha, according to a regional source. The Qataris tried to arrange a three-way meeting in Doha yesterday morning to discuss the remaining gaps, but the Iranians refused to meet face to face.

What to watch

Qatari mediators traveled to Tehran today for talks with Araghchi and other senior Iranian officials in an effort to restart the negotiations. Two American officials expressed hope that yesterday’s strikes would help push the Iranians forward and respond to Trump’s proposal. Trump’s public threats today were also part of an effort to get the Iranians to give the Qataris clear answers.

“The deal is still on the table, but the president is prepared to make the Iranians pay a price if they continue to stall and drag their feet,” an American official said.