Security Official: Iran Sees American Weakness, or It Wouldn’t Dare Attack
IDF strikes in southern Lebanon / Maariv
Until about two weeks ago, security officials said it appeared that Iran was closer than ever to an agreement with the United States, but disputes within the regime’s top ranks between moderates and hard-liners led by Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, as well as senior commanders in the Revolutionary Guards, changed the picture. "The regime’s senior officials do not see themselves, in any way, handing over the 460 kg of uranium enriched to 60% to any party outside Iran, they strongly oppose the move," one security source told Walla today (Thursday). Another senior official claimed that the Iranians are identifying American weakness in the negotiations, and are therefore trying to deepen their gains, "otherwise they would not dare attack Israel, knowing there are thousands of American soldiers here, American military aircraft, and, no less serious, the downing of an American helicopter." "The regime does not see itself, in any way, handing over 460 kg of enriched uranium to another party."
Mojtaba Khamenei / Official website, Mahmoud Hosseini
Two days ago, the United States launched a second consecutive overnight attack on Iranian territory, and according to reports struck air defense systems and launch sites. The purpose of the strike was to bring Tehran to the negotiating table. US President Donald Trump threatened that if they did not come to the table, he would strike again the next day: "We’ll blow them apart again tomorrow night." That is indeed what happened in the end. In light of this, a security source assessed that because of the escalation between Iran and the United States, Hezbollah will intensify friction with Israel and carry out attacks on the home front, and the IDF is alert and prepared for this. The same security source also said that the head of Operations in the General Staff, Maj. Gen. Itzik Cohen, presented the chief of staff with a range of responses.
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IDF strike in Lebanon / Social media footage, according to Section 27A of the Copyright Law
Will new equations be written?
In addition, against the backdrop of the American response to the downing of the helicopter over the Strait of Hormuz by the Iranians, the Iranian statements that they are considering continuing the negotiations, and after US President Donald Trump said earlier this week that the sides were close to an agreement, there is tactical and strategic uncertainty regarding the confrontation with Iran. "The IDF is preparing for 'violent mini-rounds' with Iran, which will include the launch of surface-to-surface missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles toward Israel," security establishment sources said. "The assessment in the IDF is that the Iranians will find it difficult to sign an agreement and announce it publicly, so they will 'drag out' the time."
They also noted that "the political leadership has not yet chosen how to respond to another Iranian attack on the Israeli home front, but it has discussed possible courses of action with the General Staff." The IDF assesses that Hezbollah will also try to challenge the IDF in southern Lebanon, in order to create new equations regarding IDF strikes in Tyre and Nabatieh, and not necessarily only regarding strikes in Beirut.
"The IDF is preparing for 'violent mini-rounds' with Iran" / IDF Spokesperson
Does it have a coherent strategy?
US President Donald Trump / GettyImages
"It is difficult to build a strategy when the US president has not settled on a strategy"
The IDF assessment is that Hezbollah will also try to challenge the IDF in southern Lebanon, in order to create new equations regarding IDF strikes in Tyre and Nabatieh, and not necessarily only regarding strikes in Beirut. Therefore, the IDF is also preparing for escalation in the northern arena, by expanding strikes in line with developments with Iran, in terms of dividing attention and resources.
Against the backdrop of the claim that the government has no strategy toward Iran and Lebanon, a security source said, "It is difficult to build a strategy when the US president has not settled on a strategy. Israel is affected not only by the very fact of the partnership between the US military and the IDF, including in defending Israel from missiles like this week, in which the cooperation was successful, but also by the political-strategic partnership."
According to them, "The United States and Israel are determined to take the nuclear project out of the hands of the Iranians, with all that implies, nuclear weapons are an existential threat, and surface-to-surface missiles are not a daily threat."
