Argentina's Dramatic Comebacks Propel Messi's Team to World Cup Final
Translated & summarized from N12 by baba
Argentina reached the 2026 World Cup final after four unlikely knockout comebacks, including a late win over England. Coach Scaloni’s tactical adjustments and Messi’s pivotal role were key. Spain will face Argentina in the final, with odds slightly favoring Spain.
The story in 6 lines · by baba
- Argentina won four knockout matches with dramatic comebacks to reach the 2026 World Cup final.
- AI model showed Argentina’s comeback chances ranged from 0.38% to 59.9% in key moments.
- Coach Scaloni used drink breaks to change tactics and boost late-game performance.
- Messi’s freedom to move and Lautaro Martinez’s substitute role were crucial to late goals.
- Argentina scored nine goals and conceded one after second-half drink breaks in knockouts.
- Spain is favored slightly over Argentina in the final, with a 56.31% win probability per Opta.
Argentina reached the 2026 World Cup final after four dramatic knockout stage victories, including a remarkable 2-1 comeback win against England where they overturned a 1-0 deficit in the 84th minute. Using artificial intelligence, analysts calculated Argentina's comeback probabilities in these matches: 59.9% against Cape Verde at 2-2 in the 110th minute, 0.38% against Egypt when trailing 2-0 in the 78th minute, 56.5% against Switzerland at 1-1 in the 111th minute, and 7.7% against England when down 1-0 in the 84th minute.
Coach Lionel Scaloni strategically used drink breaks to adjust formations late in games, enabling Argentina to dominate the final quarters. The team’s ability to accelerate, especially with Lionel Messi covering the entire pitch, allowed them to control matches in closing minutes. For example, against England, Argentina held 56% possession in the first half, which surged to 88% between England’s goal at the 55th minute and Lautaro Martinez’s equalizer at the 92nd. Messi was given freedom to drop back while teammates pushed forward, resulting in two assists and goals.
Argentina scored nine goals and conceded only one after the second-half drink breaks in their knockout games, overturning an earlier negative goal difference of 5-2. This success is attributed to experience, effective game management, and tactical adjustments. Unlike Spain, which relies on midfield control and gradual player movement, Argentina’s late surge centers on Messi’s freedom and impact. Lautaro Martinez’s role as a substitute also helped by engaging tired defenses and complementing Messi’s style.
Despite tactical explanations, Scaloni emphasizes the team’s fighting spirit for the national emblem. Opponents have made mistakes under pressure, as seen against Egypt and England. Spain, the European champion, awaits Argentina in the final on Sunday, with Opta’s algorithm giving Spain a 56.31% chance to win versus 43.69% for Argentina. The stage is set for a thrilling final between two continental champions.
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