Netanyahu Faces Key Vote on Personal Slots in Likud Primary List

Approximately 4,500 members of the Likud Central Committee are set to vote on Thursday on a proposal by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Minister Haim Katz to grant Netanyahu personal slots (reservations) on the party's primary election list and approve new primary regulations. Under this unprecedented proposal, Netanyahu would receive eight reserved slots, including three in the top ten and three in the second ten positions. Katz, who also chairs the Likud Central Committee and the Constitution Committee, supports the plan.

Opposing the proposal is MK David Bitan, chairman of the Knesset Economics Committee, who argues that the reserved slots are damaging Likud's poll standings and will hurt the party's electoral prospects. The vote is secret, creating uncertainty for Netanyahu, as committee members may prioritize their own political interests over his, knowing the reserved slots could push them or their allies down or off the list.

If the proposal passes, Netanyahu will secure a significant victory and control over the party list, including Katz's guaranteed slot. If it fails, there are three main scenarios: Netanyahu could abandon the reserved slots and proceed with the primaries as usual (unlikely), seek a legal solution to reintroduce the proposal or return the decision to the organizing committee (moderate chance), or form a new party with two-thirds of the current Likud faction under the Likud name (plausible).

A source close to Netanyahu acknowledged the risk of failure but insisted he does not intend to give up. Netanyahu has delayed the primaries from August 4 to August 17 to allow time for internal party processes and possibly reintroduce the proposal. He has expressed determination to refresh the party list, citing even a falafel vendor's opinion during a northern Israel visit as support.

Some Likud insiders believe Netanyahu is convinced the current list composition jeopardizes his chances in the upcoming elections. There is also a less realistic option of Netanyahu leaving Likud to form a new party, similar to Ariel Sharon in 2005, but this is considered more of a psychological tactic than a genuine plan.