Kantar Poll Shows Gadi Eizenkot's Yashar Gains at Bennett's Expense, Smotrich at Five Seats, Trooper Fails Threshold

A new Kantar poll conducted for Kan News and published on Sunday reveals that if elections were held today, the coalition bloc would secure 52 seats, while anti-Netanyahu factions excluding Arab parties would hold 58 seats. The poll indicates no significant change in this balance across various scenarios, with 107 days remaining until the elections.

The party "Yashar," led by Gadi Eizenkot, emerges as the largest single party with 24 seats, followed by Likud with 23 seats and the "Together" party with 15 seats. Other parties include Yisrael Beiteinu with 10 seats, the Democrats with 9, Otzma Yehudit with 8, Shas with 8, United Torah Judaism with 8, Religious Zionism with 5, Hadash-Ta'al with 5, and Ra'am with 5 seats. Notably, Blue and White, the Hendel-Trooper party, and Balad fail to cross the electoral threshold.

The poll also explored alternative scenarios. One scenario involves the creation of two new right-wing parties: one led by Gilad Erdan, Ayelet Shaked, and Yuli Edelstein, which would gain five seats, and another led by Ofer Winter, which would not pass the threshold. This new party is expected to draw votes from Netanyahu, Eizenkot, Smotrich, Ben Gvir, and Lieberman, reducing Netanyahu's bloc to 49 seats and the opposition without Arab parties to 56.

Another scenario considers former MK Hili Trooper leaving his partnership with Yoaz Hendel to join Gadi Eizenkot. This shift would strengthen Yashar by one seat at the expense of the "Together" party of Bennett and Lapid but would not significantly alter the overall balance of power.

Across all scenarios, Blue and White and the new Hendel-Trooper party fail to pass the electoral threshold, indicating their continued marginalization in the upcoming elections.