WHO Warns Ebola Outbreak in Congo May Be Four Times Larger Than Reported

The World Health Organization (WHO) has warned that the actual scale of the Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo could be up to four times greater than official figures indicate. As of early July 2026, the government reported 1,792 confirmed cases and 625 deaths, but WHO estimates based on testing positivity rates and modeling suggest the real number of infections could be two to four times higher.

The outbreak, declared in mid-May, remains concentrated primarily in Ituri province, especially in the health zones of Bunia, Rwampara, Mongbwalu, and Niakunde, where transmission is intense. However, the virus has also spread to neighboring provinces including North Kivu, South Kivu, and recently Tshopo. In Bunia, a city of about one million residents, approximately 50% of those tested are positive, indicating widespread community transmission.

Preliminary findings suggest the Bundibugyo strain of Ebola involved may cause milder symptoms compared to other strains. This has led some affected families to care for sick relatives at home before seeking medical help, which could increase community transmission as infected individuals remain outside treatment centers longer. WHO official Ihekweazu noted that patients staying outside care facilities for extended periods raises the risk of further spread.

Deaths occurring outside treatment centers remain a significant concern, with analysis showing about 70% of the first 400 Ebola deaths happened in the community. Strengthening surveillance and contact tracing is a critical challenge. In response, authorities have begun training 21,000 community health workers to conduct home visits, identify suspected cases, and encourage symptomatic individuals to seek treatment.

The ongoing outbreak underscores the difficulties faced by health teams in containing Ebola in northeastern Congo amid widespread transmission and community reluctance to seek timely care.