US Arms Sales to Turkey Challenge Israel’s Qualitative Military Edge Policy
The longstanding US policy of maintaining Israel’s Qualitative Military Edge (QME) in the Middle East, rooted in decisions from the late 1960s, faces renewed challenges amid shifting American approaches under different administrations. The policy began when President Lyndon Johnson authorized the sale of advanced Skyhawk and Phantom jets to Israel, marking a significant US commitment to Israel’s air superiority. Over the decades, this evolved into a formal legal framework in 2008 requiring the US president to ensure any arms sales to Middle Eastern countries do not undermine Israel’s military advantage.
Recently, US President Donald Trump’s consideration of selling advanced F-35 fighter jets to Turkey has alarmed Israeli leadership. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu directly appealed to Trump to halt the deal, warning in a CNN interview that such a sale would destabilize the regional balance of power and risk war. This concern echoes past disputes, such as the 1981 confrontation between Israeli Prime Minister Menachem Begin and President Ronald Reagan over US arms sales to Saudi Arabia, and the 1978 opposition by then-Senator Joe Biden to similar deals.
Trump’s inconsistent stance complicates matters further. In 2019, he expelled Turkey from the F-35 program and imposed sanctions after Turkey purchased Russian S-400 missile systems. Yet, in a recent NATO summit in Ankara, Trump praised Turkey’s neutrality and indicated a strong US-Turkey relationship, with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan publicly claiming a promise of five F-35 jets from the US.
The Trump administration’s unpredictable approach contrasts with Joe Biden’s consistent enforcement of the QME policy. After Biden took office, his administration froze a promised F-35 sale to the United Arab Emirates, reaffirming the US commitment to Israel’s strategic edge. Now, with Trump’s return and his fluctuating policies, Israel is once again fighting to preserve its historic "insurance policy" of military superiority. The US may attempt to mitigate the impact of any F-35 sale to Turkey by downgrading the jets’ technology or offering Israel enhanced military compensation packages. Netanyahu has warned that empowering Turkey, a regime linked to the Muslim Brotherhood, could lead to increased regional aggression.
This ongoing saga highlights the complex interplay of US domestic politics, regional alliances, and Israel’s security concerns amid evolving geopolitical realities.
