Iran Struggles to Show Massive Turnout at Khamenei Funeral Amid US Diplomatic Pressure

Following the assassination of Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, the country held a nearly week-long funeral procession culminating in his burial in Mashhad, his birthplace. High-ranking Iranian officials including President Ebrahim Raisi, Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and Quds Force Commander Esmail Qaani attended, alongside Khamenei's sons. However, the new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has not appeared publicly since his appointment.

Despite Iranian media portraying vast crowds mourning Khamenei, foreign estimates suggest attendance ranged from hundreds of thousands to a few million, far below the 15 to 20 million initially promised. Many Iranians reportedly used the public holidays declared for mourning as an opportunity for vacations, with some describing the days off cynically as a "Khomeini party." Inside Iran, authorities pressured workers, businesses, and charities to close and participate, with some sectors forced to cancel vacations and provide staff for the events. Companies were compelled to contribute financially, with some paying over a trillion rials (about $570,000) for funeral logistics, a significant sum given the average monthly family income of around $150.

The funeral procession extended into Iraq, with participants carrying images of Khamenei and chanting anti-American and anti-Israeli slogans. Flags of Iran, Iraq, and pro-Iranian Iraqi militias were displayed. Foreign dignitaries attending were limited to non-Western allies such as Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili, Russia's Dmitry Medvedev, and representatives from Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis. Notably, 13 countries, including several from Eastern Europe, Africa, the Persian Gulf, and East Asia, declined to send representatives.

Reports indicate the United States conducted an extensive diplomatic campaign urging countries not to participate in the funeral, warning that attendance would be viewed as unfriendly and could jeopardize US aid. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio reportedly instructed American embassies to dissuade host nations from attending and personally engaged with officials from at least five Arab countries. This diplomatic pressure likely influenced Gulf states such as the UAE, Bahrain, and Kuwait, which have tense relations with Tehran, to avoid the ceremonies.

Overall, the Iranian regime's attempt to present the funeral as a massive show of strength and unity appears undermined by low turnout, internal dissatisfaction, and international isolation amid escalating US pressure.