Race, Son of a Mare: The Candidates to Become the World Cup’s Dark Horse
Watch the report by Idan Kelner, Walla Sport’s correspondent at the World Cup / Walla Editorial Staff. Of the 22 World Cups played so far, there have been only eight different winners. The last time a team that had never won before lifted the trophy was in 2010. And yet, every tournament, we look for the one that will surprise this time. The dark horse, the team that has never done it, and that, precisely, will be the one to make history. So France, Spain, Brazil and England are the obvious choices, let’s dive into the teams that might do it this time. Who is it this time? / GettyImages
Norway
Why it will win: because of Erling Haaland, of course. Fifty-five goals in 49 appearances for the national team, eight consecutive seasons with an average of nearly a goal per game. He is hungry, and with the national team he always arrives motivated and never stops wanting to score more. But this Norway side is not just Haaland. Alexander Sorloth is a great striker in his own right who gets space and freedom thanks to the focus on Haaland. Antonio Nusa brings pace and dribbling from the wing, and Martin Odegaard is coming to the tournament as an English champion. Norway is an attacking team that understands that is where its strength lies, and it plays to its strengths. In only one match in qualifying did it score fewer than three goals, and it is always looking for the net.
Why not: the previous tournament it took part in was in 1998. The Norwegians do not have a tradition of World Cup appearances, this is only their fourth tournament, and experience is an important commodity, especially in the later stages. Participation in this tournament will help it and advance it toward the next World Cup. Another problem is the defense, especially in goal. The excellent attack masks this, but goalkeeper Orjan Nyland played in only five league matches this season for Sevilla, and the defensive unit in front of him does not come from Europe’s elite.
Take part in the guessing game, join the quiz and maybe win a couple’s package for the World Cup quarterfinals. More on Walla. Education loan: how to invest in the children’s future without getting into an economic spiral? In collaboration with Phoenix. How many will he score? Haaland / GettyImages
Netherlands
Why it will win: after many years of great strikers and attacking players, the current Netherlands team presents an iron defense. Captain Van Dijk, Micky van de Ven, Jan Paul van Hecke and Denzel Dumfries make up a team that will not concede many goals. You know the cliché, “attack wins matches, defense wins titles.” Frenkie and Gravenberch will control the midfield, and the Netherlands will keep the ball a lot. The talent of the defenders and midfielders, and the fact that this is a team that has been playing together for several years under Ronald Koeman, should take it at least to the quarterfinals. From there? A bit of luck would not hurt. The Netherlands has lost three finals, and plenty of people call it a loser. But you can look at it differently, this is a much smaller country than the teams that won the title in the past, and yet it has reached five semifinals and three finals. This is an overachieving team that needs one more thing to take the next step.
Why not: if this tournament had been held last summer, the Netherlands would have been one of the favorites. Its stars would have arrived in good form and at peak fitness. But Liverpool’s trio are in a poor season, Frenkie, Dumfries and Memphis are only now returning from injuries, the injured Jurrien Timber remains out of the squad, and the only one who did not stop scoring this season in the league is Donyell Malen. Expectations are always there with Oranje, but with too many players arriving after a mediocre season, is it possible? The focus has shifted to defense. Van Dijk / Reuters
Belgium
Why it will win: there are no more expectations. After many years of a golden generation that got nowhere, disappointments from coaches who failed to get the best out of Belgium’s superstars, Kevin De Bruyne, Romelu Lukaku and Thibaut Courtois are coming to this World Cup without the feeling that they must go all the way. And perhaps precisely the absence of that pressure will allow these players to play the open, attacking and creative football they know how to play, but have not managed to bring to the national team for more than a decade. De Bruyne is the brain, Lukaku the finisher. But they have one more superstar: Jeremy Doku finished the season at Manchester City in superb form and with plenty of goals. And unlike previous tournaments, in which he arrived as a talent who might surprise, at this World Cup Doku arrives as a star who can carry the team on his back.
Why not: because despite having the best goalkeeper in the world, the defense in front of him is not very impressive. Vertonghen, Alderweireld and Vermaelen played until a very advanced age, and Belgium failed to find replacements for them. The current center backs lack experience at the highest levels, and to win a World Cup you need a much stronger defense than Belgium has to offer. He arrives in blistering form. Doku / Reuters
Morocco
Why it will win: why are you laughing? Did a World Cup semifinal four years ago not convince you? Does winning the Under-20 World Championship not convince you that this is a football country that knows how to win titles? With a cohesive team and a blend of experienced players with promising youngsters, Morocco arrives at the upcoming World Cup to break the new glass ceiling above its head. It broke the previous one itself, the first African team to reach the semifinals. With the experience of Hakimi, Saibari, Bono and Amrabat, combined with the creativity and talent of Brahim Diaz and El Khannouss, Morocco plans to improve the football it presents as well. From the defensive football that took it far in Qatar, new coach Mohammed Wahbi is talking about attacking football that will thrill the hearts of the fans.
Why not: because now there are expectations. This is no longer the same team that surprised everyone and moved forward step by step with Bono’s amazing saves and the fighting spirit of the other players in front of him. Coach Walid Regragui, who built this successful team, left after the fiasco in the Africa Cup of Nations final in January, and can a coach who has never been a head coach of a senior team really step into his shoes? Will another glass ceiling be shattered? Diaz / Reuters
United States and Mexico:
Why one of them will win: maybe winning is an excessive thought, although if you ask American and Mexican fans they are completely sure that this year it is possible. But home advantage should give these teams a boost in close matches. The United States is in the middle of a project that began about six years ago, and its peak comes this summer. A squad made up mostly of players who are at an ideal age, experienced on the one hand, still young on the other, and suited to Mauricio Pochettino’s pressing system. The coach himself is a big name in European football, and the hope is that he will take the talent and potential of Pulisic, Balogun, Weah and Tillman and translate it into positive results. Mexico is the country that will bring the atmosphere and true football passion to the tournament. After years of the “curse of the fifth game” and the inability to get past the round of 16, Mexico is banking on history, in the two previous times it hosted the World Cup it reached the quarterfinals. Last year it won the Gold Cup and the CONCACAF Nations League, so it comes into the summer with a lot of confidence. Add to that the fact that in 2026 it has not yet lost a match.
Why not: the United States comes with enormous expectations from the public. But perhaps the thought that this team can succeed is exaggerated. In warm-up matches against Belgium and Portugal, it seemed that against the strongest opponents in the tournament it could not really put up a fight. And despite the belief in America that Christian Pulisic is world-class, the Americans do not really have a top-tier global star. Mexico always expects, thinks it is good and is disappointed every time. It arrives at the World Cup without its biggest star, Chucky Lozano, and unlike in the past it does not have a big star playing at the top level in Europe. Santi Gimenez was supposed to be that man, but he did not score even one goal all season for Milan.
